Bill Straub: Rand Paul may win the beauty contest, but as Gary Bauer figures it, he has a math problem

WASHINGTON – Sen. Rand Paul won a beauty contest last weekend (no, that’s not a joke) but a number of conservative activists who the Kentucky Republican might need to win the party’s presidential nomination in 2016 may be sending their words of endearment elsewhere.

For the third time in three years, Paul won the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Committee confab outside Washington DC on Saturday. About 3,000 delegates expressed their presidential preference in the survey, perhaps providing Paul with some momentum as he prepares to enter the White House sweepstakes in the next month or so.

Despite his success in rounding up votes at the conference, there are growing doubts that Paul can round up the votes necessary during the caucus and primary season to grab the GOP nomination. Some elements within the party’s infrastructure are decidedly cool regarding Paul’s chances, going so far as to dismiss him as no Ronald Reagan.

One interesting figure who is less than enthralled with Paul’s candidacy is the redoubtable Gary Bauer, an activist who holds substantial sway with social conservatives and who just happens to be a Kentucky native.

Bauer is a one-time domestic policy advisor to former President Ronald Reagan, the sainted one who continues to send right-wingers’ hearts palpitating even though he left office 26 years ago and is no longer with us. Bauer has led several organizations that promote so-called “family values’’ and even ran for president once himself as a Republican, dropping out after the New Hampshire primary in 2000.

Bauer, who is a nice and courtly gentleman out of the spotlight, hales from Newport, where he grew up as the scion of a working class family. He attended Georgetown College and made his reputation in political circles as something of an anti-abortion, anti-gay rights firebrand. Republicans with an eye on the White House looking to snag family values voters might best pay heed to Gary Bauer, who distributes thousands of newsletters, email messages and Facebook posts for his admirers to embrace on a daily basis.

To Bauer’s way of thinking, Rand Paul is “not a Reagan Republican,’’ which is rather like Michael Corleone noting that Moe Greene isn’t displaying sufficient respect toward the family.

In remarks reported last July in Onenewsnow.com, a Christian news site, Bauer said he was struck by the fact that “I virtually never hear him speak out against tyranny around the world. And I virtually never hear Rand Paul say anything about the mullahs in Iran that are trying to get a nuclear weapon.”

He was equally dismayed by Paul’s desire to place less emphasis on social issues and instead carry small government, economic issues to the fore.

“Well, how do you have a truce on the social issues when we’re facing a president and a Democratic Party that are trying to force the American people to pay for abortions?” Bauer said. “They’re trying to force on the American people a radical redefinition on marriage.”

And Bauer shows no signs of warming up to Paul, seeking to become the first Kentuckian since a fellow named Lincoln resided in the White House back in the 1860s. He dismissed Paul’s straw poll success as the result of superior organization, nothing more. The more impressive performance, he said, was produced by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who some GOP conservatives are hoping to sell as Reagan fils, better known as “the real thing,’’ who finished second.

“That’s why, even though Rand Paul won, I think what people were impressed by was that Walker, who is just bursting into the campaign in a meaningful way in the last month or so, was able to essentially fight Rand Paul to a draw,’’ he said.

And while most apparent-though-undeclared candidates for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination have embraced Reagan’s views on foreign policy (best described by Walter Brennan as Old Man Clanton in “My Darling Clementine’’ – “When ya pull a gun, kill a man.’’) Paul remains somewhat less fervent.

Paul, Bauer maintained, “takes a fairly soft line on international disputes, and has not been really been vocal about increasing the defense budget at a time when it desperately needs that.”  

Hence Paul’s potential pitfalls in trying to grasp the golden ring. He may have been the prettiest girl at the recent debutants ball but none of the big suitors are rushing up to seek his hand in marriage.

It’s fair to say social conservatives have lost station within the Republican tent in recent years, owing to the party’s desire to try libertarianism on for size. Most contenders are jockeying to see who can shrink government the most. Paul, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-TX, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and just about everyone else seeking the crown want to cut the federal government like a fir tree at Christmas time.

Social conservatives, while they don’t like taxes and certainly oppose some regulations that everyone has to deal with in everyday life, aren’t necessarily proponents of small government. In fact they desire an activist government that stops abortions, prohibits same-sex marriage, wants creationism taught in the public schools and basically enhances what they view as the moral fabric.

And they want a strong foreign policy that supports Israel – the Promised Land – and protects the nation from communism.

This is where Paul likely will encounter a bump in the road – maybe a bump the size of Everest. Despite being tagged as a libertarian, Paul is actually quite conservative on both the social and economic front. He opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, as does everyone in the field. But he has publicly said he wants to de-emphasize those items collectively known as family values. By discounting a large wing of the party he stands little chance of attracting their votes.

The problem has slid over to foreign policy. Paul attended Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech before Congress this week. Netanyahu was greeted with great enthusiasm by congressional Republicans who like his hard line against the Palestinians and in other areas. At one juncture, cameras caught Paul standing and clapping at a Netanyahu remark.

He subsequently was the subject of criticism for failing to applaud heartily enough for Netanyahu, who strangely seems to be replacing Reagan in the hearts of right-wing Americans. Mayhaps he can seek the GOP nomination.

Said Jennifer Rubin, a pro-Israel columnist for The Washington Post, “Unenthused Rand Paul Lifelessly Applauds Bibi http://bit.ly/1Ef1wm8 .. almost like he has been faking his support for Israel until now.’’

Others chimed in.

So it’s becoming increasingly obvious that Paul will have trouble attracting social conservatives and neocons who generally favor the use of American military power and support Israel. That basically leaves him with the libertarians, a growing wing but almost everyone seeking the job can be considered suitors.

Rand Paul has a math problem. But at least the folks attending CPAC last weekend think he’s pretty.

Washington correspondent Bill Straub served 11 years as the Frankfort Bureau chief for The Kentucky Post. He also is the former White House/political correspondent for Scripps Howard News Service. He currently resides in Silver Spring, Maryland and writes frequently about the federal government and politics. Email him at williamgstraub@gmail.com.