One of the principal unwritten laws around the poker table is never throw good money after bad. The time might be approaching for Sen. Rand Paul to pay heed.
The Kentucky Republican’s presidential campaign has proved to be a bigger flop this summer than the Entourage movie. After starting out near or at the top of the list of 17 legitimate contenders grabbing for the brass ring, Paul faces a precipitous slide that places him very much in the middle of the pack, with fading hopes of clawing his way back up.
Fundraising has been a disappointment, as was his appearance at the big boy’s table earlier this month – the debate featuring the 10 leading contenders for the GOP crown. Desperately needing to bolster his effort, Paul instead offered very little – he tendered fewer words than anyone else on the platform, and the ones he muttered were pretty ho-hum.
The lone spark occurred when Paul got into an exchange with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie over government surveillance policies aimed at fighting terrorism. Somehow Paul managed to work in the fact that Christie hugged President Obama when the commander-in-chief visited New Jersey to survey the damage wrought by Hurricane Sandy – a subject that had nothing to do with the issue at hand.
A post-event survey conducted by Gravis Marketing found that Republican debate watchers thought Paul had the worst night of the bunch.
In Iowa, site of the first in the nation caucus in February 2016, Paul is the incredible shrinking candidate. Public Policy Polling, which leans Democrat, released the results of a survey conducted after the debate that showed Paul dropping like an anvil plummeting toward Wile E. Coyote’s skull.
“The biggest loser in the poll is Rand Paul,” PPP said in its analysis. “He now has a negative favorability rating at 31/45. That gives him the worst numbers of anyone in the field, outdistancing even Chris Christie on the unpopularity front. Paul’s 3 percent standing represents a drop all the way down from 10 percent in April.”
In other words, a number of viewers left the debate with a not-so-favorable impression of Rand Paul and his quest to be president.
One more for good measure – a Rasmussen Poll, which leans Republican, released a survey Tuesday showing Paul tied for eighth place nationally with Christie and a relative newcomer, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who looks to be on the rise.
Coming out of the poll is that Paul now lags behind the GOP flavor-of-the-month, California businesswoman Carly Fiorina, who performed well in the second tier GOP debate conducted prior to the main event. Any further drop could jeopardize his seat at the main table in any upcoming debates.
And it’s beginning to look like the vultures are circling. According to a Washington Post report, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-TX, running slightly ahead of Paul in most polls, is looking to swoop in and pick up the Kentuckians’ supporters and donors, arguing that Paul obviously is beginning to tank and he, Cruz, is able and willing to pick up their cudgel.
Paul is endeavoring to address the bad news by turning to a strategy he often embraces – gimmickry. In the past, for instance, he used the gimmick of standing on the Senate floor for almost 11 hours talking about National Security Agency surveillance policies to draw attention to his burgeoning campaign for the White House. It attracted some attention but most were perplexed over he managed the fete without a restroom break.
And he’s at it again. A couple weeks ago he tried to exhibit his disdain for the Internal Revenue Service code (welcome to the club) by releasing g a video showing him destroying it in three different ways – burning (shades of 1933), chainsaw and wood-chipper. The chainsaw proved his favorite.
Now he is attempting to regain his once prominent stature by attacking the GOP frontrunner, New York businessman Donald Trump, for being an ersatz Republican without copping to the fact that he himself is running as an ersatz libertarian.
A frontal attack on Trump with little nuance is generally not a good idea because it provides the nation’s most notorious political wild man with an opportunity to engage in his specialty —ad hominin attacks that have nothing to do with the issue at hand but that his supporters lap up like a dog drinking water on a hot summer’s day.
After citing Trump’s numerous ventures outside Republican orthodoxy that rendered him unfit to earn the party’s presidential nomination, Paul was hit with a fairly typical The Donald broadside via Twitter:
“Truly weird Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky reminds me of a spoiled brat without a properly functioning brain. He was terrible at DEBATE!’’
Guarantee more people read the counter-attack than the attack. Maybe not the best move.
Then, of course, there is the little matter of Jesse Benton, a Paul confidant and the candidate’s choice to run America’s Liberty PAC — “a Super PAC created for and dedicated to, electing Senator Rand Paul President of the United States in 2016. ’’ Benton was indicted on federal charges that he and others were involved in a scheme to bribe an Iowa state senator to support Paul’s father, Ron Paul, who staged his own campaign for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.
Now, it’s quite apparent Sen. Rand Paul finds himself up the creek and the paddle is slipping from his hands. His campaign is certainly not in the worst shape of the group. There are a number of obvious also-rans (cough, Rick Santorum, cough) and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, he of the faulty memory when he first ran for the White House in 2012, has reportedly stopped paying his staff assigned to South Carolina, a sure sign of a campaign taking water.
But Paul needs the worm to turn. And there’s never been a worm born who can turn in that huge of an arc.
Republicans are not buying what Rand Paul is selling and there’s no reason to believe their consumer habits are going to change any time soon. Sooner or later he’s going to have to think about cutting his losses and leave the job of getting kicked around by Donald Trump to someone else.
There’s an obvious out. Paul, hoping to assume the characteristics of a contortionist, is looking to run for president and re-election to his Senate seat simultaneously. That is forbidden under Kentucky law, and, as of right now, he will have to make a decision about which office to seek by the Jan. 27, 2016 filing deadline.
Paul is trying to circumvent the law by convincing state GOP leaders to hold a caucus this year instead of a primary, which could at least push the decision off for a few months. But some members of the GOP hierarchy are blanching at his request, according to a recent report in the Lexington Herald-Leader, and its price tag, which could ultimately reach $750,000.
Paul has expressed a willingness to pick up the tab, and in the alternative he is contemplating a lawsuit challenging the statute prohibiting him from seeking two different offices.
Trump already has mocked Paul for waging simultaneous campaigns, asserting with some justification in a tweet that Paul is trying to “take advantage of the people of Kentucky by running for Senator and Pres.”
“Why should Kentucky be back up plan?’’ he asked, this after Paul skipped this year’s Fancy Farm Picnic, Kentucky’s big, annual political kick-off event, in favor of campaigning in distant New Hampshire.
Paul could drop the dual campaigns and opt to re-dedicate himself to the folks of the commonwealth he was elected to represent, something that has taken a back seat in recent months. Or he can continue on a quixotic expedition for the White House, thus throwing good money after bad.
Washington correspondent Bill Straub served 11 years as the Frankfort Bureau chief for The Kentucky Post. He also is the former White House/political correspondent for Scripps Howard News Service. He currently resides in Silver Spring, Maryland, and writes frequently about the federal government and politics. Email him at williamgstraub@gmail.com.