WASHINGTON – It’s reached a point where Sen. Rand Paul’s obscure presidential campaign is relying on the kindness of strangers.
Paul, R-Bowling Green, benefitted from a form of what educators refer to as social promotion when CNN took pity and allowed him to play on the main stage of the most recent GOP presidential debate even though, at three percent in the polls, he didn’t qualify. None of the other candidates lodged a protest over the obvious bending of the rules, perhaps because they knew Paul wouldn’t do anything to spoil their party anyway.
And they were right.
Now it appears Paul’s luck might be running out.
Fox Business Network, which is staging the next food fight on Jan. 14, has indicated it might cut the field invited to the big boy’s table to six. That would leave the one-time perceived front-runner for the nomination on the outside looking in and, frankly, deprive him of his primary rationale for continuing to beat that dead horse.
Paul’s apparent intent to soldier on, like Napoleon at the outskirts of Moscow, is based on what has become one of the great political clichés of the era – the polls are wrong. You may recall that President Mitt Romney expressed a similar view before him, as did President John McCain and President John Kerry.
“I think really that we have overblown these polls,’’ Paul told Jake Tapper of CNN. “In reality, many of the people in these polls are not voters.”
And a decent argument can be made that polls in recent months – hello Gov. Matt Bevin – haven’t proved all that trustworthy. People are abandoning their landline phones like crewmembers racing to get off the Andrea Doria and those precious few who are answering such inquiries may be fibbing more than ever before.
But to accept Paul’s assessment that he is actually in the thick of things one would have to embrace the view that surveys are wildly overrating the eight or nine folks who at least seem to be ahead of him. And an argument can be made that, rather than standing at a flimsy three percent, those supporting the Kentuckian’s bid are down to one in 100.
Republicans familiar with the Paul effort insist he will not hang around until the bitter end when he reaches Dante’s admonition – “Abandon all hope yea who enter here.’’ Chances are he’ll hang around the perimeter until the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 23. The Silver State consistently has been viewed as the most accepting of his pseudo-libertarian views in the early portion of the delegate selection process. A loss there would leave him nowhere to go.
Suffice to say that Trump and Paul are beneficiaries of the angry white guy vote – Trump for his ranting imitation of a drunken longshoreman sitting at the end of the bar and Paul’s promise to get the government off everyone’s back
Paul could conceivably roll the dice and stick around until Super Tuesday, March 1, when 12 states make their choice. Any decision to wait until then will show just what a glutton for punishment he really is.
But an alternative theory regarding Paul’s future is flourishing and also worth considering.
The notion centers on who would benefit most from a Paul withdrawal. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-SC, who lagged so far behind the field that no one really noticed he was dropping out this week, is thought to have left the race at this juncture to jump start an anti-Donald Trump tidal wave, or, if you prefer, an anti-Donald Trump pond ripple.
Trump, the New York business tycoon who cannot, will not and definitely won’t win the Republican nomination according to the experts and other participants, has outpaced the field for more than four months, often displaying double-digit leads. His propensity to belittle women and individuals with the slightest hint of melanin, coupled with his failure to produce any proposals to address the nation’s ills other than the absurd notion to deport 11 million undocumented workers, has made him the Gandhi of the angry white guy, the folks who just happen to comprise the base of the modern Republican Party.
Sensing that the Trump momentum nay be getting a tad out of hand, Graham exited hoping to dispatch his supporter, whoever that might be, to a more acceptable candidate, one who might attract support from someone other than Archie Bunker. Others in the field – Carly Fiorina, who has no love for The Donald, comes to mind, and she probably would like to get into the vice president sweepstakes – may soon follow suit.
But Rand Paul is a different animal. While he is no lover of Donald Trump – calling the frontrunner a “bully’’ and “an empty suit’’ in one recent session with reporters – they are drawing water from the same well. Trump’s bucket just happens to be bigger.
Suffice to say that Trump and Paul are beneficiaries of the angry white guy vote – Trump for his ranting imitation of a drunken longshoreman sitting at the end of the bar and Paul’s promise to get the government off everyone’s back. It’s widely held that Paul’s chances tumbled precipitously when Trump entered the race. If Paul were to throw in the towel any time soon, there has to be some concern in Republican quarters that a substantial number of his supporters – as few as they may be – will turn to Trump, making the slaying of the dragon that much more difficult.
All of which raises the question of timing. Is it possible that Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, and those candidates looking up and seeing Donald Trump’s rear end would like Rand Paul, who at this stage of the game isn’t about to adversely affect anyone, to remain in the race a bit longer, thus depriving Trump of any additional support that could result in a jail break, handing him the nomination?
It’s not a far-fetched idea. There’s little question that Priebus is in an anybody-but-Trump mode and The Donald has successfully alienated everyone else in the field to the extent that even Sen. Ted Cruz, R-TX, as noxious an individual as has ever set foot on the national stage, could win Mr. Personality in one-on-one competition.
At some juncture the Paul campaign will hit the point of diminishing returns – he’ll have so few supporters left that it won’t be worth anyone’s time to prop him up like a scarecrow. At some stage he’ll definitely wave adios – if anyone notices.
Washington correspondent Bill Straub served 11 years as the Frankfort Bureau chief for The Kentucky Post. He also is the former White House/political correspondent for Scripps Howard News Service. He currently resides in Silver Spring, Maryland, and writes frequently about the federal government and politics. Email him at williamgstraub@gmail.com.