By Russ Brown
Special to NKyTribune
LOUISVILLE — Back in October, the University of Louisville men’s basketball team was picked to finish seventh, middle of the pack in the 15-team Atlantic Coast Conference, in balloting by media that cover the conference.
Chances are, if another vote was taken now the No. 18 Cardinals (11-2) — who will open their ACC campaign against Wake Forest (9-3) at 8 p.m. Sunday in the KFC Yum! Center — would be chosen a few spots higher.
Not because UofL has beaten anyone that counts during a pillow-soft non-conference schedule.
Rather, despite a mostly cruise-control December, the Cards have gained respect and raised expectations by showing they can compete against high-caliber competition. That revelation came by virtue of two losses to Top-15 teams on the road — 71-67 at No. 1 Michigan State and 75-73 at No. 12/11 Kentucky.
Now Louisville is looking like a serious contender for a top-four finish in the ACC that earns a first- and second-round bye in the conference tourney, and even a possible threat for the regular-season championship.
One thing is clear: because of a quirk in the schedule, the Cards have a great chance to get off to a fast start in the ACC before things heat up to red-hot level next month. Six of their first seven opponents were all picked to finish in the bottom half of the league and based on non-conference results, and that still looks like where they will wind up.
They were 9-1 against that group last year, losing only to the Wolfpack.
Furthermore, UofL will get its two most formidable early foes — No. NR/25 Pittsburgh (picked 10th, but 11-1) and Florida State (11-2, picked 6th) — in the KFC Yum! center in back-to-back games on Jan. 14 and 20.
And the benevolent schedule doesn’t stop there. UofL will also play its first two games against contenders at home — No. 5 Virginia (11-1) on Jan. 30 and No. 7 North Carolina (12-2) on Feb. 1.
Then it gets more interesting…and challenging. During the rest of February, UofL will face road games at No.15 Duke (11-2), Notre Dame (9-3), Pittsburgh, No. 13 Miami (11-1) and Virginia, in addition to a home contest with the Blue Devils.
In the meantime, though, the Cards will be able to build confidence and experience among their younger players and iron out problems without the pressure of a series of close games, even though they’ll play four of six on the road after Wake’s visit — at NC State (10-3, picked 8th), Clemson (7-6, 12th), Georgia Tech (10-3, 13th) and Virginia Tech (8-5, 14th).
Not that those teams are necessarily pushovers incapable of an upset, but they’re certainly not anywhere near the class of the elite competition Louisville will face later on.
“The ACC will be difficult,” UofL coach Rick Pitino says. “The teams that were at the top last year, like Duke, North Carolina, us and Notre Dame, are all pretty much the same, still good basketball teams. But there are others that have really, really picked up their level over what we saw last year, like Pittsburgh, Miami, Georgia Tech, Florida State, NC State, Wake Forest.”
Pitino says he’s relatively pleased with the way the Cards are playing heading into ACC action, even though he counted “45 little mistakes” in the loss to Kentucky.
“There’s a lot to learn with this basketball team,” he says. “I think they’re learning; it’s just that there are so many parts they have to learn. But I don’t think any coach could ask for more effort that’s being given on the court. The effort has been extraordinary.”
Virginia was the preseason favorite and the Cavaliers have solidified that status with their performance so far. They entered Saturday’s home game against Notre Dame with a 10-game winning streak and a 4-0 record vs. Kenpom’s top 50 (UofL has none). Their lone loss came in the second game of the season, at George Washington (11-2), 73-68.
As for UofL’s first opponent, Wake, the Demon Deacons have won seven of their last eight and defeated host LSU 78-70 in their last outing Wednesday. They also own victories over Indiana and No. 25/NR UCLA, so they’re obviously no slouches.
Wake, coached by former Kansas star Danny Manning, is led by 6-9 senior forward Devin Thomas, who had 31 points and 11 rebounds in an 85-76 loss to UofL last season. Thomas is second in the ACC in rebounding with 10.2 per game and ninth in scoring at 16.6 ppg.
Aside from Thomas, Wake starts three sophomores and a freshman, with rookie guard Bryant Crawford averaging 13.9 ppg and 6-10 sophomore forward Dinos Mitoglou 12.2. The other starters are sophomores Mitchell Wilbekin (9.0 ppg) and Greg McClinton (5.7).
“Wake Forest has almost every player back and we don’t have a guy who scored a single point,” Pitino says. “We had a difficult time with Thomas last year and they’re a much, much better team. Thomas is a very, very good offensive basketball player. What I like most about him, though, is he can score in bunches because his footwork is so great.”
UofL will be shorthanded because senior guard Trey Lewis, the team’s second-leading scorer at 13.9 ppg, suffered what Pitino termed “a bad ankle sprain” in practice Friday and won’t play. He will be replaced by freshman Donovan Mitchell, who played well off the bench against UK with eight points, five rebounds and three assists in 21 minutes.
“You never know when you have a young team, when the bright lights come on, who is going to be afraid,” Pitino says. “Well, it’s obvious the big stage doesn’t bother Donovan Mitchell.”
In a blog post Friday, Pitino said the Cards are “behind the eight ball”, pleaded for loud fan support and noted that they will be without a backup point guard. Pitino mentioned the possibility of using junior David Levitch at that position more than usual or burning freshman Ryan McMahon’s redshirt season.