Tom Block: GOP presidential race remains muddled; Democrats have clear favorite in Clinton

With the Iowa caucuses less than a month away I thought I’d review where I see the Presidential election and important dates to focus on.

Republicans

February 1: Iowa Caucuses
February 9: New Hampshire primary
February 20: South Carolina primary
February 23: Nevada caucuses

March 1: First big primary day, 11 states mainly in the south including Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas and Virginia.
March 5: Kentucky Presidential caucuses
March 15: Super Tuesday five major states, plus their delegate count (Florida-95, North Carolina-72, Illinois-69, Ohio-66, and Missouri-52

If no clear leader emerges after Super Tuesday, then the last primaries in New York and California could be important.

April 19: New York-92 delegates
June 7: California-172 delegates

Republican National Convention – July 18 to 21

The fight for the Republican nomination may be the most interesting in the 40 plus years I have been involved in politics. As one pundit I heard recently said, Donald Trump could win the nomination, or Trump could fail to carry a single state in the primaries, there is that much uncertainty in the Republican race.

One question is how accurately are the polls reflecting Trump’s strength. In my view there are two completely different possibilities. First, is that the polls are not accurately capturing the limited group of actual primary voters, and the polls therefore are over estimating Trump’s strength.

The other opposite possibility, one that would shock the political establishment, is that likely voters are hesitant to tell pollsters that they will vote for Trump, but will support the New York developer in the secret voting booth. Under this scenario Trump could outperform the polls.

Iowa, with its caucus system, may be too much of an organization battle for Trump to prevail, but he could come back with a victory in New Hampshire the following week. NH could provide momentum for a victory in South Carolina, one of the most conservative Republican voter electorate in the nation.

Should Trump’s candidacy fail, Texas Senator Ted Cruz appears to be best positioned to take his supporters, especially if he wins Iowa, where he currently leads.

In the primaries prior to March 15 the delegates are allocated proportionately, while in the big state primaries starting on Super Tuesday (March 15), many states have “winner take all” primaries. Looking at the election lineup on Super Tuesday a big question is whether or not Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush in Florida, John Kasich in Ohio, or Cruz in Texas can win their home states.

Here in Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul faces his own “favorite son” test when the Republicans hold their Presidential caucuses on Saturday, March 5. I can’t imagine Paul continuing in the race if he fails to do well in his home state caucuses that were planned and designed by the Senator and his supporters.

If no candidate has assembled a strong lead by mid-March, after Super Tuesday, the race could then focus on the late primaries in New York and California. This could an additional problem as both states have a more moderate electorate, even in the Republican Party, and could favor a more mainstream candidate, hence slowing momentum that Trump or Cruz could be building.

There are so many question marks, especially surrounding the viability of the Trump candidacy, that it is really impossible to put odds on the eventual winner, but there are interesting weeks ahead.

Democrats

In my view the chances are north of 75 percent that Hillary Clinton will secure the Democratic nomination for President, and her odds are at least 50/50 that she will be the next President.

With California, New York, Illinois, all of New England, and other rust belt states securely in the Democratic column, any Democrat starts the race for President with a slight advantage.

The biggest question mark for Secretary Clinton is whether or not there is some explosive email that comes out as the State Department releases those recovered from her personal server, and the email raises difficult issues for her campaign. There is also the issue of Clinton/Bush fatigue that in my view torpedoed Jeb Bush’s campaign.

And President Clinton’s presence out on the campaign trail could cause issues for Hillary as well.

While Bernie Sanders has run a better race than most had expected, and shown the strength of the left in the Democratic Party, the fact remains that Secretary Clinton is very popular among rank and file Democrats.

There is also a broad consensus among many that the time is long past when the U.S. should elect a woman President, and now is the time, and Hillary is the candidate. Actions by Republicans on issues ranging from equal pay to defunding Planned Parenthood have reinforced that view of many Democrats and independents that women issues need to be address by a woman candidate.

What if Secretary Clinton falters? Should there be an unexpected turn in the Democratic race, in my view the party would not choose Sanders. The convention would turn to Vice President Joe Biden.

When he decided not to run he said that it was too late, but that he would have run if he felt he could win. He has sent a clear message, that despite the incredible sadness of losing his son, he would be ready to serve if needed. He is very popular, and despite spending his entire adult life in politics, he captures some of the down to earth frankness the voters seem to be looking for, and is fueling the campaign of Donald Trump.

However, I expect the Democratic nominee to be Secretary Clinton.

Tom Block is a public policy consultant who had a 21-year career with JP Morgan Chase where he served as head of government relations in New York City and created a Washington research product. He also created the bank’s EU Government Relations program and developed a new position as U.S. Government Policy Strategist focusing on how U.S. government policy impacts capital markets. He has an extensive government and banking background, has worked on political campaigns and as a speech writer. He is a family trustee of Bernheim Arboretum in Louisville and holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from American University. He and his wife make their home in Kentucky. He is a regular contributor to nkytribune.com. Contact him at tomblockct@aol.com.