By Marc Hardin
NKyTribune contributor
Following an unruly regular season and a circus-like playoff atmosphere, the fantasy championship rounds are here and ready to bestow gifts, not to mention untold bragging rights. To the finalists, congratulations. This is what we play for, a chance to face the other surviving team in the league for the right to say who’s best in 2018.
If you’re a finalist, chances are you’ve had to dig deep into the bag of tricks to get this far. Only the most prescient of fantasy owners knew they might be relying on the likes of Nick Mullens, Dante Pettis, Jaylen Samuels and Damien Williams for points, never mind points in bunches, this late in the year.
So, was your squad naughty or nice during the first rounds of the playoffs? Is the fantasy Santa on his way in the sleigh with the spoils or does papa need a brand new bag? In a nod to the most wonderful time of the year, here are some Christmas lists to help guide you through the first week of the fantasy finals, complete with some late-season observations, all shoved under the tree for your convenience.
Listings include position, player, team, three-week standard league scoring average and upcoming opponents. Up first, the clutch guys who’ve bailed out many a squad during the three most important games to date, the regular-season finale and the first two weeks of the playoffs.
THE NICE LIST
It’s probably time to take Josh Allen seriously. He’s the late-season gift that keeps on giving. The rookie keeps throwing interceptions but he’s also put up three 20-point games since he was handed the Bills’ starting quarterback job Week 12. In addition to putting up serviceable passing numbers, Allen has carried the ball 40 times for a whopping 351 yards with three rushing touchdowns in four weeks. His final two opponents are the Patriots, ranked 23rd in the NFL defending fantasy QBs, and the Dolphins, ranked 20th, so he’s ending the season with favorable matchups. Equally hot Nick Mullens, on the other hand, does not have a favorable schedule. If you’re picking between the two, go with Allen. Here’s who’s hot over the past three games:
QB Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 23.9, at Seahawks, vs. Oakland
QB Josh Allen (Bills) 22.2, at Patriots, vs. Dolphins
QB Deshaun Watson (Texans) 18.8, at Eagles, vs. Jaguars
QB Nick Mullens (49ers) 18.6, vs. Bears, at Rams
QB Tom Brady (Patriots) 18.2, vs. Bills, vs. Jets
QB Philip Rivers (Chargers) 18.1, vs. Ravens, at Broncos
QB Matt Ryan (Falcons) 17.7, at Panthers, at Buccaneers
QB Russell Wilson (Seahawks) 17.6, vs. Chiefs, vs. Cardinals
QB Lamar Jackson (Ravens) 17.2, at Chargers, vs. Browns
Injuries, worsening game-day weather conditions and decreasing margins for error facing NFL teams chasing playoff spots are having a major impact on Fantasy Nation. Offensive play-calling is getting more conservative and teams are increasingly going more to the ground. Be advised that there were 10 100-yard rushers last week, compared to six 100-yard receivers. That’s the first time this season 100-yard backs outnumbered 100-yard receivers in a playing week. The hottest backs over the past three games:
RB Derrick Henry (Titans) 29.1, vs. Redskins, vs. Colts
RB Christian McCaffrey (Panthers) 20.7, vs. Falcons, at Saints
RB Todd Gurley (Rams) 19.5, at Cardinals, vs. 49ers
RB Joe Mixon (Bengals) 18.1, at Browns, at Steelers
RB Dalvin Cook (Vikings) 17.7, at Lions, vs. Bears
RB Ezekial Elliott (Cowboys) 16.5, vs. Buccaneers, at Giants
RB Chris Carson (Seahawks) 15.5, vs. Chiefs, vs. Cardinals
RB Saquon Barkley (Giants) 15.3, at Colts, vs. Cowboys
RB Philip Lindsey (Broncos) 14.6, at Raiders, vs. Chargers
RB Damien Williams (Chiefs) 14.6, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders
To date, there’s been nearly three times as many 100-yard receivers as 100-yard backs and more than three times the passing scores compared to rushing scores. These receivers have been the most productive fantasy scorers over the past three weeks but it’s a motley crew. Amari Cooper got most of his fantasy points in one game as did Mike Williams. T.Y. Hilton and DeAndre Hopkins each have just one 10-point game in standard leagues over the past three weeks despite healthy three-game averages.
WR Amari Cooper (Cowboys) 16.5, vs. Buccaneers, at Giants
WR DeAndre Hopkins (Texans) 15.9, at Eagles, vs. Jaguars
WR Dante Pettis (49ers) 14.6, vs. Bears, at Rams
WR Davante Adams (Packers) 14.4, at Jets, vs. Lions
WR Mike Williams (Chargers) 13.1, vs. Ravens, at Broncos
WR Julio Jones (Falcons) 12.8, at Panthers, at Buccaneers
WR T.Y. Hilton (Colts) 12.0, vs. Giants, at Titans
Just two tight ends managed to score at least 10 points last week and they were little-used reserves Garrett Celek of the 49ers and the Panthers’ Chris Manhertz, who ended 10 and eight-game scoreless streaks, respectively. There were seven double-digit scorers at the position the previous week but only four Week 13 so it’s been tough counting on tight end scoring of late. While the following three didn’t crack 10 points last week, they are the only tight ends averaging at least 10 points over the past three weeks:
TE Travis Kelce (Chiefs) 15.5, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders
TE George Kittle (49ers) 13.1, vs. Bears, at Rams
TE Jared Cook (Raiders) 10.0, vs. Broncos, at Chiefs
Kick scoring is up the second half of the NFL season. Twelve kickers scored at least 10 points last week, the most since Week 11 when 13 kickers scored in double figures despite it being a bye week. There were 10 kickers scoring at least 10 points Week 13 and Week 10. There were just three occasions during the first nine weeks when at least 10 kickers scored in double digits. Here are the top three kickers the past three weeks:
K Ka’imi Fairbairn (Texans) 15.3, at Eagles, vs. Jaguars
K Jason Myers (Jets) 11.0, vs. Packers, at Patriots
K Greg Zuerlein (Rams) 11.0, at Cardinals, vs. 49ers
THE NAUGHTY LIST
You have to take the good with the bad in fantasy. These are widely owned and highly productive players who’ve been slumping for at least three weeks. Chances are, some of these guys are killing your team in the postseason, or they already killed it. Listing includes position, player, team, three-week standard league scoring average and upcoming opponents.
QB Jared Golf (Rams) 6.1, at Cardinals, vs. 49ers
QB Drew Brees (Saints) 9.0, vs. Steelers, vs. Panthers
QB Cam Newton (Panthers) 10.3, vs. Falcons, at Saints
QB Kirk Cousins (Vikings) 11.4, at Lions, vs. Bears
QB Mitchell Trubisky (Bears) 12.8, at 49ers, at Vikings
RB Leonard Fournette (Jaguars) 3.5, at Dolphins, at Texans
RB Matt Breida (49ers) 5.1, vs. Bears, at Rams
RB James White (Patriots) 6.1, vs. Bills, vs. Jets
RB Sony Michel (Patriots) 6.2, vs. Bills, vs. Jets
RB Josh Adams (Eagles) 6.9, vs. Texans, at Redskins
RB Mark Ingram (Saints) 7.1, vs. Steelers, vs. Panthers
WR Brandin Cooks (Rams) 4.7, at Cardinals, vs. 49ers
WR Adam Thielen (Vikings) 6.1, at Lions, vs. Bears
WR Michael Thomas (Saints) 6.2, vs. Steelers, vs. Panthers
WR Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) 7.8, at Seahawks, vs. Raiders
WR Tyler Lockett (Seahawks) 7.9, vs. Chiefs, vs. Cardinals
WR Stefon Diggs (Vikings), 8.2, at Lions, vs. Bears
TE Zach Ertz (Eagles) 4.7, vs. Texans, at Redskins
TE Eric Ebron (Colts), 6.1, vs. Giants, at Titans
TE Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) 7.1, vs. Bills, vs. Jets
K Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots) 5.6, vs. Bills, vs. Jets
K Wil Lutz (Saints) 6.3, vs. Steelers, vs. Panthers
K Cody Parkey (Bears) 7.0, at 49ers, at Vikings
LUMPS OF COAL
When the games became really important, these big names didn’t help at all and might have blown up your squad, so they deserve the obligatory chunk of combustible black sedimentary rock.
QB Matthew Stafford (Lions) Disappointing.
QB Eli Manning (Giants) Ineffective.
QB Andy Dalton (Bengals) Out for the season.
RB Kareem Hunt (Chiefs) Suspended.
RB Melvin Gordon (Chargers) Injured.
RB James Conner (Steelers) Injured.
WR A.J. Green (Bengals) Out for the season.
WR Odell Beckham (Giants) Injured.
WR Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos) Out for the season.
TE Jimmy Graham (Packers) Ineffective.
TE Kyle Rudolph (Vikings) Invisible.
TE Greg Olsen (Panthers) Out for the season.
K Chris Boswell (Steelers) Utterly lost.
STOCKING STUFFERS
One of last week’s quirkier moments was an audible called by Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, who name-dropped a famous singer and a pair of well-known baseball pitchers during the bizarre sequence against the Bengals. Carr signaled the play change by first yelling the singer’s name then the pitchers: “Rihanna! Nolan Ryan! No. No. Clayton Kershaw! Clayton Kershaw!”
Nolan Ryan, of course, is a Baseball Hall of Famer. Kershaw is the three-time Cy Young Award winning ace for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Later in the drive, Carr wound up throwing a TD pass for the third straight game to reserve tight end Lee Smith, the son of former Dallas Cowboys offensive tackle Daryle Smith. Another Lee Smith, no relation, was just voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame, joining Ryan. Weird.
With Carr and Smith in mind, don’t be afraid to gift yourself with any of these lightly owned players who’ve had some intriguing results as we get closer to Christmas. Most are only for the desperate. But hey, you could do worse. Listing includes position, player, team, three-week standard league scoring average and upcoming opponents.
QB Derek Carr (Raiders) 18.2, vs. Broncos, at Chiefs
RB Elijah McGuire (Jets) 8.9, vs. Packers, at Patriots
RB Kalen Ballage (Dolphins) 6.1, vs. Jaguars, at Bills
WR Robby Anderson (Jets) 11.3, vs. Packers, at Patriots
WR Kenny Stills (Dolphins) 10.3, vs. Jaguars, at Bills
WR Robert Foster (Bills) 10.0, at Patriots, vs. Dolphins
TE Lee Smith (Raiders) 6.2, vs. Broncos, at Chiefs
K Daniel Carlson (Raiders) 10.7, vs. Broncos, at Chiefs
So, to recap, you better think twice and play the right guys, or yule be sorry. Happy holidays!