By Marc Hardin
Special to NKyTribune
As fallible folks, we are susceptible to wide misjudgments. We misread intentions. We eat too much turkey on Thanksgiving. We get the wrong Christmas gift. We let the pizza delivery guy keep the credit card receipt. We pick the wrong guy to put in the flex spot. And, as harborers of superstitions and phobias, we sometimes project irrational fears.
For example, I’m not crazy about snakes. I don’t like flying. I fear Eli Manning right now, but that’s not a phobia, like fear of cramped spaces (claustrophobia), fear of spiders (arachnophobia) and fear of the number 13 (triskaidekaphobia). Hey, it’s tough being human, right? As Stevie Wonder once sang in the chorus of his masterpiece “Superstition”: When you believe in things that you don’t understand then you suffer. Superstition ain’t the way.
But Week 13 is the only way to the playoffs, which for most fantasy owners begin next week. After this week, you’re either in or you’re out of the postseason winners’ bracket, which is a heck of a lot more fun than being in the anticlimactic losers bracket. If you’re on the postseason bubble in your leagues and need a win to join the ringers, you understand.
Depending on where you are in the standings, you either relish this week as step one of a crowning achievement or you’ve been dreading it like 13 snakes loose on an airplane. If you don’t like your luck, just remember English poet John Milton once said luck is the residue of design. If you think this applies to you, take time to take stock about your strategies. In the meantime, buck the Week 13 blues with what I’m going to call anti-triskaidekaphobia, a very long word but not as long as hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia (fear of the number 666).
TIME FOR THE 13TH FLOOR ELEVATORS
Some people just don’t like to label things 13th. Tall buildings have been designed without the naming of a 13th floor. Some airports skip the 13th gate. Certain cities don’t have a 13th Street. Some hospitals and hotels don’t have a Room 13. Horse racing stall numbers at Santa Anita Park in California go from 12 to 12A to 14.
Some were nonplussed by all the fuss. Take the 13th Floor Elevators, please. Unlistenable to many, they are believed to be the first rock and roll band that called their music psychedelic rock. The first known use of the term appeared on their business card in 1966. You might think I’m on some psychedelics, but I’m considering some crazy names in my deeper leagues this week in search of big numbers. I’m talking about a Jermaine Kearse kind of crazy. Roky Erickson would be so proud.
If you’re in the same situation and thin on talent after a Week 12 rocked by injuries to several fantasy cogs, you have to come up with some solid replacement options because, let’s face it, you need points. You need some luck too because you covet a win and you’ll take anything you can get to achieve that. Boom or bust candidates on roster or on waivers are in play because you need big numbers this week. You know they’re out there from overlooked sources because johnny-come-lately surprises (think Gus Edwards) have bubbled up, and some given-up-for-dead players (Kenyan Drake, anyone?) have come back to life.
I hit it big last week on some of my teams and maybe you did too while continuing to believe in upstarts like Edwards, QB Baker Mayfield, RB Josh Adams, RB Theo Riddick, WR D.J. Moore, WR Adam Humphries, and TE David Njoku. Evidence was there for sustained success. If you lost Andy Dalton because of his broken thumb, you need to see if Mayfield (60 percent unowned) is available. If you’re without Leonard Fournette (again), see about Adams who’s going up against a Redskins defense this week that’s given up an average of 29 points to fantasy backs over the past four games. If Adams (35 percent unowned) is already gone, look into Riddick (65 percent unowned), especially in PPR leagues.
In the list below containing 13 widely available and elevating flex players, there are reasons to believe both yardage and touchdowns could be in the offing in this do-or-die 13th week.
IT’S LUCKY RUNNING BACK TIME
1. RB Austin Ekeler (Chargers): I never cut him and I’m glad I didn’t, but I’ve been hesitant to start him at times because of no scoring and limited upside in the shadow of main man Melvin Gordon. Update: Gordon is out with an MCL sprain. Action for Ekeler, still 50 percent unowned, increased significantly after Gordon left the game last week. He totaled 15 touches for 103 yards with a touchdown in what still was limited duty. Imagine what he can do playing a full game against a Pittsburgh defense that’s surrendered an average of 30 points against fantasy backs over the last three weeks.
2. RB LeGarrette Blount (Lions): He now has a history as a touchdown scorer for multiple teams. Considering Kerryon Johnson (knee) is less than 100 percent and the Lions are out of the playoff chase, they may ride Blount against a Rams defense that’s given up a four-week average of 28 points to fantasy running backs. Blount carried a season-high 18 times last week and scored twice, giving him five TDs on the season as an 80 percent unowned commodity.
3. RB Doug Martin (Raiders): Yeah, he plays on a punchless offense that’s usually in pass-heavy mode, but he’s getting consistent usage (five games in a row with at least 10 carries). Martin is a rhythm runner. The more carries he gets, the better he is, and he’s showing productive signs with 4.7 yards per carry since the Week 7 bye. He’s the Raiders’ top goal-line option if they can just get there. Think about this. Going into last week no team had surrendered fewer fantasy points to running backs than the Ravens yet Martin scored a serviceable 13.1 against them in standard leagues, 16 in PPR. That sounds like a guy rounding into form. It sets up a potentially nice outcome this week against the Chiefs’ defense, ranked all season in or near the bottom five against fantasy backs. Martin is touchdown dependent. But if he gets one Sunday before the Chiefs take a big lead, you’re good.
4. RB Ty Montgomery (Ravens): It’s a stretch in a backfield loaded with bodies and probably curious since I’ve talked up Gus Edwards. I just have this feeling he’s going to have a nice week. Alex Collins is nursing a foot injury. Buck Allen has been persona non grata and the Ravens are the league’s outside-the-box thinkers right now. Montgomery is up to speed with the offense after getting traded by the Packers. He had eight carries last week, second to Edwards, and averaged a robust 6.5 yards per tote. He led all Ravens backs with three catches and scored 9.4 PPR points. Up next are the Falcons, ranked third from last in defending fantasy backs. If you’re hurting in a competitive 20-team league, you could do worse as you scour the waiver wire for out-of-nowhere production.
IT’S ABOUT TIME FOR THESE RECEIVERS
5. WR Curtis Samuel (Panthers): Consistently targeted of late with three touchdowns in four games in which he’s averaging 10 PPR points per contest. The Panthers face the leaky Tampa Bay defense this week. Voila!
6. WR David Moore (Seahawks): After Tyler Lockett, Russell Wilson looks for him in the end zone. Wilson has thrown 25 touchdowns. Moore is up to five TDs now with another scoring grab Sunday, along with 103 yards receiving. Plus, his overall targets are up, ranking first on the team in targets-per-route run over the last two weeks. Up next, the lousy 49ers’ pass defense.
7. WR Josh Doctson (Redskins): Weird things happen when teams switch quarterbacks. Alex Smith is out for the season with a broken leg. Doctson was clicking with Smith, scoring double-digit PPR points three of Smith’s last four weeks. But he hit double figures again last week with Colt McCoy under center. If Doctson merely meets his three-week averages of four catches for 50 yards and scores a TD for the third time in five weeks, you’ve got a 15-point game from a guy who’s owned in just 15 percent of leagues. He’s playing the Eagles, one of the worst teams in the league against fantasy receivers.
8. WR Keith Kirkwood (Saints): How much wood could a Kirkwood chuck if a Kirkwood could chuck wood? Well, he’s been running second to Michael Thomas in targets on a high-octane passing offense at the direction of MVP candidate Drew Brees, who loves to spread the love when it comes to touchdowns. Three Saints receivers, including Kirkwood, caught a TD on their lone grab last week. Makes you wonder what Kirkwood could do with a few more chucks from his All-Pro QB if Tre’Quan Smith remains iffy.
9. WR Jermaine Kearse (Jets): Kearse always had talent, just not in the right offense. He’s stuck on the hapless Jets now but he was targeted 12 times last week, three more than the rest of the team’s receivers combined, continuing a trend. Quite promisingly, he scored his first TD. This week against the Titans, he’ll face one of the league’s worst defenses against fantasy receivers so it probably won’t matter who’s under center, whether it be hurt Sam Darnold or hurt Josh McCown. If they have to go with Davis Webb, forget what I said.
10. Quincy Enunwa (Jets): If not Kearse, then Enunwa because risky de facto No. 1 Robby Anderson isn’t completely healthy. It’s tricky because Anderson could rise up or Webb could be forced to start, but you know the Jets may trail this week against the Titans, forcing them to go to the air. Enunwa has five 10-point PPR weeks this season, including Week 12 with four catches for 73 yards against a tough Patriots defense. Anderson has one, none in eight weeks.
A total of 33 current NFL players wear No. 13, many of them wide receivers including the Saints’ Thomas, Keenan Allen (Chargers), Odell Beckham (Giants), Mike Evans (Buccaneers) and T.Y. Hilton (Colts). Those studs aren’t available, but several No. 13 players are free agents. In the deepest of PPR leagues, check in on these two.
11. Christian Kirk (Cardinals): Within 10 points of WR team leader Larry Fitzgerald.
12. Michael Gallup (Cowboys): Solid second lately to Amari Cooper in WR targets.
TIME FOR A TIGHT END
13. Jonnu Smith (Titans): Note to self: Remember to pick up lucky Jonnu Smith this week.
Got it? Great. Now, can you please take me to Floor 12A.