The resignation of House Republican Speaker John Boehner is the most recent example of the conundrum facing Congressional Republicans – how to govern with deep divisions. In fact, divisions within the two Congressional parties have switched over the past 25 years.
Previously, the deep partisan divide was within the Democratic Party where Southern Democrats were more conservative than Eastern and Western Democrats. This regional split, that dated to the post-Civil War era, placed an impossible burden on the Democratic leadership to keep the party united.
Today the division between traditional center right Republicans and Tea Party anti-government Republicans is reminiscent of the old Democratic division, making unity and consensus very difficult to achieve.
In the House, largely due to highly partisan redistricting, the Democratic Party has become unified, as there are no longer any conservative southern House Democrats, All the seats formerly held by these Democrats are now in the hands of Republicans.
At the same time the Republicans have been able to capture some of the “toss-up” races in the East and the West. This is seen when examining the 2014 Congressional elections. In the Republican sweep, Republicans won races in 26 districts that President Obama had carried two years earlier. Furthermore, there are several Republicans in seats that Romney only narrowly prevailed. Adding these competitive seats together there is a solid block of moderate Republicans that often have interests that vary from their colleagues who represent hardcore conservative districts.
On the flip-side Democrats only carried five seats in Congressional districts that Mitt Romney had won in 2012. The gap between the most liberal to the most moderate House Democrat has narrowed, and it is relatively easy for Leader Nancy Pelosi to provide a united front.
Adding to the Republican conundrum is the anti-government rhetoric in the presidential race. This anti-government wing of the party is going to place additional pressure on the new Republican speaker. With Fox News as a cheerleader, Tea Party leaders are fueling the rhetoric chastising Republican Congressional leaders for caving to the Democrats and President Obama. It was this hot political talk that led to cheers by conservative Republicans when Senator Rubio announced the speaker’s resignation.
These are the voices that two years ago called for a government shutdown over Obamacare. These members of Congress, now emboldened by the speaker’s departure, state that they are willing to close down the government over funding for Planned Parenthood, and also strongly oppose the president on issues ranging from immigration to health care.
On any given vote, Republicans can only lose 28 members before they need to seek Democratic votes. In the months ahead, Congress needs to deal with such critical issues as the budget, debt ceiling, Export Import Bank and funding the bankrupt Highway Trust Fund. With 26 Republicans in Obama House seats, and the Democratic Party largely ideologically united, getting the needed majority of 218 votes on big issues is going to be a challenge for whoever becomes speaker.
Tom Block is a public policy consultant who had a 21-year career with JP Morgan Chase where he served as head of government relations in New York City and created a Washington research product. He also created the bank’s EU Government Relations program and developed a new position as U.S. Government Policy Strategist focusing on how U.S. government policy impacts capital markets. He has an extensive government and banking background, has worked on political campaigns and as a speech writer. He is a family trustee of Bernheim Arboretum in Louisville and holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from American University. He and his wife make their home in Kentucky. He is a regular contributor to KyForward. Contact him at tomblockct@aol.com.