By Russ Brown
Special to NKyTribune
LOUISVILLE — Forget RPI, power rankings or any of the other metrics used to determine strength of schedule among college basketball teams. The NAMES of Louisville’s opponents say it all.
They range from monikers that summon visions of a monastery (St. Francis Brooklyn), a national park (Grand Canyon), a scenic western U.S. landscape (Utah Valley) and an insurance company (Hartford). And then, of course, there are the usual directional schools — North Florida and Eastern Michigan.
None of those teams bring to mind anyone that will be mentioned in NCAA Tournament, or even NIT, selection conversations come March.
Taking stock of the steady diet of cupcakes that have come through the KFC Yum! Center in November and December to be devoured in so-called “guaranteed” games where the opponent goes home with a fat check and the hosts are guaranteed a victory, the best that can be said for the Cardinals is that they are now the unofficial champions of the Western Athletic Conference, where Grand Canyon, Utah Valley and Missouri Kansas City reside.
The predictable result of that user-friendly schedule has been a string of blowouts, with the winning margin in UofL’s 11 nonconference victories is 34 points. It’s no exaggeration to suggest that the Cards’ toughest opponent at home might have been Division II Kentucky Wesleyan, which succumbed by only nine points in an preseason exhibition game.
UofL’s best “win” has been a loss, 71-67 at now-top-ranked Michigan State. It wasn’t until after that defeat that the Cards broke into the Top-25 and they have been inching up the ladder ever since, standing now at No. 16 in the AP poll and 15 in the coaches’ balloting.
UofL’s next win over a team from a Power Five conference will be its first; in fact, the Spartans of the Big Ten are the only such club the Cards have faced.
“We’ve had an easy road, no question about it,” UofL coach Rick Pitino acknowledged after Wednesday’s 98-68 rout of Utah Valley. “But now we’re going to have a very tough road, and I think these guys are going to be up for the challenge.”
Maybe so, but all of that is to emphasize how difficult it is to get a handle on the Cards’ chances against No. 12/11 Kentucky (9-2) at noon Saturday in Rupp Arena (CBS).
Against such weak competition, it may be fool’s gold to put much stock in UofL’s glossy statistics — it is among the nation’s leaders in field goal percentage (51.5); field goal percentage defense (34.7), rebound margin (+15.2), scoring margin (+30.2), scoring (85.0) and scoring defense (54.8).
Or maybe the young Cards, who inarguably have March potential, have already progressed to the point where they can end a three-game losing streak against the Wildcats and give Pitino only his second win in nine tries against UK since John Calipari arrived in Lexington.
With seven newcomers and the loss of four starters, Pitino says he constructed the soft schedule to give his players confidence.
“Sometimes you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t,” he says. “Some of these teams aren’t as bad as you think they are. I really don’t think it (the schedule) is a factor, good or bad. I really don’t. You saw what we did at Michigan State. The rest of the season is going to be a killer schedule.
“If you played a really tough schedule early on you may not have any gas left in your tank (for ACC play). A new group can be worn out. So it may be a blessing in disguise, we don’t know. If we were playing a schedule like Michigan State played and we were 6-4, 7-3, we may have lost our confidence a little bit. Our confidence right now is pretty high.”
The players seconded that notion, saying they do indeed have confidence — some of it originating from their narrow loss to the Spartans — and that they’ve been able to learn, even from the routs.
“When you play higher competition, that brings out the competitor inside of you,” said guard Trey Lewis, who had 21 points and seven rebounds against Utah Valley. “I think we have the type of team that when we’re challenged, we’re going to rise to the occasion. I think we’re playing pretty well and with a lot of confidence right now.”
Nevertheless, freshman guard Donovan Mitchell admitted that he and his teammates will have to be more focused for the entire 40 minutes if they expect to upset Kentucky. It’s easy to get distracted when the game is over at halftime.
“When you’re up 30, it’s easy to just let the guy go by you and rely on Anas (Mahmoud) or Nanu (Chinanu Onuaku) to block a shot,” Mitchell said. “But you can’t do that against a top-tier team because it’s a dunk or a foul or a pull-up jump shot. The simplest mistake you make today may be a critical mistake you might make on Saturday that they can take advantage of in a heartbeat. So it’s being able to focus on the little things and being really locked in, both in practice as well as the game.”
Saturday afternoon we’ll see whether the Cards have simply digested empty calories so far or whether they’ll enjoy some icing on their cupcakes.