By Russ Brown
Special to NKyTribune
LOUISVILLE — Let’s be honest about this. Could the University of Louisville football team’s postseason appearance in the Music City Bowl tonight have been set up any better to benefit the Cardinals?
It’s difficult to see how. Let us count the ways:
*The Cards (7-5) are playing just a few hours away down I-65, making it almost a certainty that they will have something of a home-field advantage against Texas A&M (8-4) in the 7 p.m. contest in Nissan Stadium (ESPN).
*They were paired against an SEC team they can beat — in fact, UofL is a 4.5-point favorite.
*They are facing a team in turmoil, at least offensively, after the Aggies’ first two quarterbacks departed at the end of the regular season, so …
*UofL will be facing a third-string quarterback who has thrown just 27 passes all year.
*And finally, the Cards have a golden opportunity to beat a team from the best conference in the country and one with a big name and reputation, but without the accomplishments this season to go with it. In other words, a team that isn’t as good as its tradition would suggest.
Even the weather is cooperating. The forecast for calls for a high of 55, a low of 37 and virtually no chance of rain, with the temperature at kickoff expected to be 47. All of which is unusual for Nashville in December.
“I think it’s great for us, for our team, for the fans,” Petrino says. “I think we should have the home field advantage and that always helps get us inspired. It’s a night game, so our guys will be rowdy. I like that too. It’s all been good. I’m excited to see our fans and have a great bowl game.”
Now all the Cards have to do is take advantage of that embarrassment of riches and beat A&M for the first time in four tries. While you won’t get anybody in Louisville’s program to admit it, naturally, that’s a task that was probably made much easier than it would have been, given the Aggies’ quarterback situation.
Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray, who combined for 2,896 yards passing and 22 touchdowns as A&M finished fifth in the SEC in total offense (423 ypg), announced they were transferring earlier this month. That thrust junior college transfer Jake Hubenak into his first start.
But A&M center Mike Matthews, the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame offensive lineman Bruce Matthews (Oilers and Texans), thinks Hubenak is well-equipped to guide the offense even though he completed just 12-of-27 passes for 92 yards in mop-up duty in four games. At Blinn JUCO in 2014, Hubenak led the NJCAA with 4,052 yards and 47 touchdowns, with nine interceptions in eight games.
“I’ve said all along that I think he could get the job done for us,” Matthews says. “He’s been put in that role now and I have no doubt that he will do great for us. It helps that he’s an easy guy to rally around. he’s a hard-working guy and the team likes him a lot. It’s kind of hard not to get along with him and it’s easy to follow his lead. He’s got a great arm and I’ve said all along, that guy’s talented.”
Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin insists he won’t have to limit the offense with Hubenak at the controls.
“He’s been here all year so it’s not like he hasn’t practiced or done anything,” Sumlin says. “Fortunately, we’ve had a little bit more time than three or four days before our first game to be able to deal with that.”
UofL coach Bobby Petrino doesn’t expect the Aggies’ base offense to change much and says his team has other concerns besides not knowing quite what to expect from Habernak.
“We’ve got to worry about where the receivers are lined up, what matchups they’re trying to work and how we’re going to defend their basic schemes, and then put pressure on the quarterback,” Petrino says. “They’re a fast team at the skill positions.”
UofL defensive coordinator Todd Grantham says Hubernak has plenty of talent surrounding him that can cause the Cards’ problems if their defense doesn’t bring its ‘A’ game.
“When you have guys with skill and the athletic ability to get the ball on the perimeter, in space, they can turn a missed tackle into a double-digit gain,” Grantham says. “And they’re sound in what they do. They like to run the ball more than most people think. They’ve always had good offensive linemen. So when you spread guys out and you’re physical up front, you’re going to have the ability to create seams for your runner or you can throw it outside to guys who can make plays one-on-one. I think it’s a combination of all that that allows them to be effective.”
Both teams have relied heavily on a strong defense and they appear pretty evenly matched in that department, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a low-scoring game.
Louisville ranks 14th in the Football Bowl Subdivision in total defense, allowing 323.4 ypg, while A&M has given up 367.2 (42nd) against a slightly stronger schedule. The Aggies have a slight edge in scoring defense, 21.6 ppg (27th) to 24.3 (45th).
“Louisville is really athletic,” Sumlin says. “Look at them, great team speed defensively, one of the top teams in the country defensively. Really, really big up front. They’re used to playing in big games. It’s going to be a heck of a game.”
Where the Cards might struggle is in protecting quarterback Lamar Jackson and providing operating room for him and their running backs. UofL’s young offensive line surrendered 43 sacks, next-to-last in the FBS, while the Aggies’ pass rush has delivered 33 sacks (No. 21), the same as UofL.
Against the two best defenses UofL faced — Boston College and Pittsburgh — its offensive line was dominated, with those two teams combining for 15 sacks and collecting six turnovers.
At the end of the season, A&M and UofL were headed in opposite directions.
The Aggies lost four of their last seven games after starting the year ranked No. 9, while the Cards won six of their last eight after starting 0-3.
But UofL is 1-5 against teams that qualified for bowls, with its only win against a team with a winning record being over mediocre NC State. The Cards’ six FBS victories came vs. teams with a combined 26-46 record (11-37 in conference games).
So a win over A&M would be by far their most impressive of the season, even though the Aggies aren’t ranked and are playing with an untested QB.
“We’re playing against a very good opponent, a high-profile opponent,” UofL offensive coordinator Garrick McGee says. “Our team will be really fired up and want to go out and represent our program, represent our university the right way so that everybody in the country can see we are one of those teams that everyone in should be thinking and talking about. So it’s really important for us to represent ourselves and our school the right way.”
Russ Brown covered University of Louisville athletics for over 30 years, including 15 for The Courier-Journal in Louisville. He is senior writer/editor for the Louisville SportsReport, which he helped found, and also writes for Cardinalsports.com. He covers Louisville men’s basketball and football as a KyForward correspondent.