After the victory by Senator Ted Cruz in Wisconsin and his weekend success in Colorado, it is becoming more apparent that the Republican Presidential nominating process is unlikely to have any one candidate reach the absolute majority of 1,237 delegates. While Donald Trump has a clear lead, Senator Cruz’s recent victories indicates that Trump may not reach the magic number, even with victories in large states such as New York and California.
Trump and Cruz pose a vexing problem for the Republican Party, though Mr. Trump’s issues may be more “huge” than those posed by Senator Cruz.
Senator Cruz has an unfortunate personality where he antagonizes nearly everyone he gets to know. Despite the Republican establishment rallying around Cruz to help him defeat Trump in recent contests, only two of his 54 Republican colleagues have endorsed his candidacy. And one of those who have endorsed him, Senator Lindsey Graham, did so only after saying that if Senator Cruz were murdered on the Senate floor, no one would care!!!
Probably the low point in Senator Cruz’s short tenure in the Senate was when he took to the Senate floor last summer, to break all rules of Senate decorum, and called Kentucky’s senior Senator, his Republican colleague and Republican Majority Leader, a liar.
This was over a vote Leader McConnell was going to allow on the Export Import Bank. Leader McConnell had in fact made clear for months, including in response to a question asked at a Greater Louisville Inc. lunch, that he was going to allow a vote on reauthorization of the bank. And the vote had overwhelming, bipartisan support, and was approved 64 to 29, so Senator Cruz was never going to win the case, yet he embarrassed his leader. Senator Cruz led the impossible mission to repeal Obamacare that led to the government shutdown. Many Republicans wonder how his uncompromising approach can lead to any accomplishments if he would become President. And most importantly, those who know him best and have seen him in action on the Senate floor are withholding their support.
Donald Trump poses different issues for the Republican Party. Trump is a candidate who has never held elective office, and while very engaged in real estate development hasn’t really given much thought to other issues that face the nation and the world. His off the cuff answers to wide ranging questions have both demonstrated his lack of experience and previous consideration of the issues; and also demonstrate a very thin skin and at times intolerance. Women, Hispanics, disabled, and others have been victims of his ready, shoot, aim philosophy. On the other hand he is an interesting foil to Senator Cruz. While Cruz has demonstrated an unwillingness to compromise on important, core issues; Donald Trump, author of “Art of the Deal,” has made clear he will relish the chance to put together deals ranging from the Middle East to healthcare, and this has frightened many hardcore conservative Republicans who support Senator Cruz.
So where does this leave the Republican Party?
In my view Trump is a heads-you-lose, tails-you-lose candidate. With each new statement he offends another group, and voting blocks from conservative Republicans to Independent women are likely to either vote for the Democratic candidate, or stay home if Trump is the Republican nominee.
But if the Republican Convention “steals” the nomination from the candidate that enters the convention with the most elected delegates, then many of his vociferous supports are likely to either vote for the Democratic candidate, or like conservative Republicans, stay home and not vote.
The tendency to be disappointed in the process and stay home could have serious implications down the ballot. This could be especially true in the race for control of the Senate. The Republicans start the race for control with a 54 to 46 majority, but 24 of the 34 seats to be contested in 2016 are currently held by Republicans, and seven of these seats (WS, IL, NH, FL, PA, OH and IA), are in states President Obama carried in 2012. Democrats have only two seats, CO and NV, where the polls show a close race.
If a discouraged Republican electorate stays home, not only would it likely insure a Democratic victory for the White House, but also it could cost Republican control of the Senate. Loss of Senate control would return Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell to the role of Minority Leader after leading the Senate Majority for the past two years.
Tom Block is a public policy consultant who had a 21-year career with JP Morgan Chase where he served as head of government relations in New York City and created a Washington research product. He also created the bank’s EU Government Relations program and developed a new position as U.S. Government Policy Strategist focusing on how U.S. government policy impacts capital markets. He has an extensive government and banking background, has worked on political campaigns and as a speech writer. He is a family trustee of Bernheim Arboretum in Louisville and holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from American University. He and his wife make their home in Kentucky. He is a regular contributor to NKyTribune and KyForward. Contact him at tomblockct@aol.com.
Trump was invented by the Republican party and now they have to find a way to kill him off. Cruz is just a tool to do that. The result will be that neither will have enough delegates to put them over the top; there will be a contested convention and that’s the best establishment Republicans can hope for. Kasich is the obvious choice but the hard right does not like him either. Ryan is looking better every day. Somehow, though, I just can’t imagine Republicans staying home for the election. Tea partiers will show up and do something even if its to vote for a write-in. The best news is that there is a pretty good chance the Senate can be “flipped” and we can make Old Mitch a one term Majority Leader. That would be perfect karma for his ugly prediction in 2009.