(Editor’s Note: This article has been updated since the original posting on June 1, 2014)
The question has been asked for a generation—will the Triple Crown of Thoroughbred racing ever be won again? The question might soon be answered.
On June 6, American Pharoah could become the 12th winner of the elusive honor. Or, his name will be on a longer list of runners that won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes but failed to capture the Belmont Stakes.
The most recent Triple Crown winner is the mighty Affirmed who achieved the distinction way back in 1978. The decade had two other Triple Crown winners—in 1977 with Seattle Slew and in 1973 with Secretariat, who ended a Triple Crown drought dating back to Citation in 1948.
Speculation abounds for the gap of nearly four decades between winners and one of those notions will be tested this year. The speculation attributes the Triple Crown shortage to the abundance of Thoroughbreds born in modern times compared with yesteryear. (See accompanying chart.)
This year’s group of three-year-olds is from the smallest crop since Affirmed—one of 28,271 born in 1975—swept the series. A few years after Affirmed’s iconic victory, the number of Thoroughbreds born each year routinely expanded beyond 30,000 and peaked above 50,000 in the 1980s.
By comparison, racehorses in the middle of the 20th century had fewer potential rivals when foal crops were teeny by today’s standards. The 1940s had four Triple Crown winners when annual foal crops averaged roughly 6,000 according to The Jockey Club. Sir Barton, the original Triple Crown winner who won in 1919, was one of only about 2,000 Thoroughbreds born in 1916. In theory, those Triple Crown heroes were simply the best of a not very big bunch.
By the 1950s, about 10,000 Thoroughbreds were produced in North America each year and that figure nearly doubled the following decade. The cream of the crops had more potential challengers than their counterparts of the 1940s. The numbers seem to point to a definitive reason for 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation holding his place for 25 years as the most recent horse to win all three jewels.
Trio of triples before drought
Just when horse racing fans speculated there would be no more Triple Crown winners, along came Secretariat in 1973. The massive chestnut vaulted to legendary status by following his Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes victories with his overwhelming 31-length Belmont Stakes triumph. He was the superstar of the 24,361 Thoroughbreds born in North America in 1970.
Just four years after Secretariat’s amazing Belmont Stakes, Seattle Slew swept the Triple Crown. He was one of 27,586 in his crop.
Affirmed took the Triple Crown to another level when he edged the gallant Alydar in their epic Belmont Stakes stretch duel. Alydar is forever remembered for finishing second in all three legs of the Triple Crown. In theory, he could have been a Triple Crown winner had he not been born in the same crop of 28,271 as Affirmed.
The elusive Triple Crown had become nearly an annual event when Spectacular Bid stood ready to be the next king in 1979. But his third place finish in the Belmont Stakes—famously blamed on a prerace injury caused by a safety pin in his hoof—dashed the dream. Hope was revived in 1981 with Pleasant Colony but ended with another third-place effort in the Belmont Stakes.
The dry spell that would extend well into the next century had begun and so had the era of increased Thoroughbred production. After Spectacular Bid and Pleasant Colony, 11 more horses, including California Chrome last year, failed to win the third jewel after taking the first two Triple Crown races.
By 1980, foal crops of more than 30,000 were the norm and peaked above 50,000 in 1985-87. More horses were available to challenge each other during the Triple Crown season leading to rationale that the quantity of competition was just too overwhelming for a single dominant competitor. While the numbers eventually declined, crops of 30,000 were typical until the 2010 foal crop dipped to 28,353.
The count was even lower in 2012 when approximately 23,500 Thoroughbreds were born in North America according to the most recently published figures from The Jockey Club. American Pharoah is the lone member capable of sweeping the Triple Crown but several contemporaries could stand in his way.
Will American Pharoah capture the Belmont Stakes at odds of 23,500 to one? If so, the majestic bay colt will inspire a cornucopia of questions from mystics and statistics wondering what formula produced a living legend.
But at least no one will have to ask for a long time if the Triple Crown ever will be won again.
Lexington-based freelance writer Liane Crossley is a lifelong lover of Thoroughbred racing who has held a variety of jobs in both barns and offices. Her favorite part of the industry is being with the horses and the people who share her passion for them. She can be reached at crossleyliane@yahoo.com