By Keith Taylor
Special to NKyTribune
Kentucky hasn’t reached a bowl game in five years, but the Wildcats hope to reverse the trend in Mark Stoops’ third season at the helm.
A year ago, Kentucky turned in a solid first-half campaign, recording five wins in the first six games, including Southeastern Conference victories over South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Despite the impressive start, the second-half featured six straight setbacks, giving Kentucky a 5-7 record, doubling the total from the previous two years.
Kentucky’s schedule is favorable with eight home games scheduled in new Commonwealth Stadium, including five of the first six games.
The following is this writer’s take on what to expect when the season kicks off on Sept. 5 against Louisiana Lafayette.
Starters: Like last season, Kentucky has a chance to get off to a good start and four wins are easily within reach. The odds favor the Wildcats in games against Louisiana Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, while a road encounter at South Carolina isn’t a sure victory, but not out of the realm of possibility. The Wildcats have a shot against Florida and 24th-ranked Missouri. Kentucky is 0-3 against Missouri since the Tigers joined the conference in 2012 and haven’t beaten Florida since 1986, but came close a year ago, losing to the Gators 36-30 in triple overtime in Gainesville. Taking a 4-1 record will give Kentucky confidence going into a Thursday night showdown against Auburn on Oct. 15. The game against the Tigers will be the first home non-Saturday game in school history.
Meat of the matter: The showdown against No. 6 Auburn marks the beginning of a crucial four-game conference stretch, easily the toughest on the schedule. The list includes road games at Mississippi State and No. 9 Georgia, a team the Wildcats haven’t beaten since 2009, and a home encounter against No. 25 Tennessee on Halloween. A split in those four games is attainable, especially if the Wildcats are healthy.
Strong finish: Following a road game at Georgia on Nov. 7, the Wildcats finish with three games that are in the marginal category and could swing in either direction. The easiest will be a road game against Vanderbilt and Charlotte at home. The final on Thanksgiving weekend against Louisville has high implications and could make or break the season and determine if the Wildcats will be playing beyond November.
Breakdown: The guarantee games, the contests Kentucky should win, will be Louisiana Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Charlotte, while the toughest will be games against South Carolina, Mississippi State and Georgia. The marginal games will be Florida, Missouri, Tennessee and Louisville, considering all three contests are at home.
Third-year breakdown: Only one coach in modern era has had winning season in their third season as coach of the Wildcats. Jerry Claiborne went 9-3 and won the Hall of Fame Bowl over Wisconsin. Hal Mumme broke even (6-6) in 1999.
Final prediction: The Wildcats will go 7-5 and end the postseason drought, but can’t afford to lose confidence, especially early in the season.
Keith Taylor is a columnist and senior sports reporter for KyForward.com and the NKyTribune.