With the last major political event of 2015, the Las Vegas Republican debate behind us, it is a good time to take a look at the 2016 elections and why they are so important.
As President Obama’s term comes to an end the Democrats have controlled the White House for 16 of the last 24 years. Democratic control of the White House has been a key tool for the Democratic Party to forestall total Republican control of government as they now have majorities in both the House and Senate.
In 2016 not only will votes choose the next President but also one-third of the Senate, and the entire House is up for re-election. While most followers of political trends believe that Republicans are likely to retain control of the House, control of both the White House and the Senate is very much a 50/50 proposition.
The White House: I have been involved in politics and public policy since 1970 when I was a speechwriter for a U.S. Senate candidate. I can’t recall a past election for the White House where the election year began with so much uncertainty as currently surrounds the Republican campaign for the party’s nomination.
While there have been false signals, most famously Hilary Clinton’s position in 2008, right or wrong there was a consensus as the election year began. In the Republican race Donald Trump may be the leader in the polls, but there is little conviction by political experts that he has the staying power to take the nomination.
Republicans have been critical of President Obama’s lack of experience; yet two leading Republicans, Rubio and Cruz, have little more experience than Obama after four years of his first Senate term.
Governors have been a training ground for recent Presidents in both parties: Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush, but this year no governor or former governor has been able to move to the top.
For Democrats there remains a sense of inevitability that Secretary Clinton will be the party’s nominee. Yet as Sen. Sanders has demonstrated she is a flawed candidate with concerns ranging from “Clinton fatigue,” to the secret server, and very low marks on honesty.
Yet Democrats know that if Republicans retain control of Congress only a Democratic President can stop a Republican policy steamroller. Additionally, there is considerable excitement about the country finally having a woman President, just as President Obama’s candidacy generated excitement over a breakthrough on race.
Senate: In 2016 there are 34 Senate races, and Republicans currently represent 24 of the seats. Included among the Republican candidates are seven Senators in states that Obama carried in 2012. Races in Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania are expected to be very close.
For Democrats to gain control on the Senate they need to either win four seats and maintain control of the White House, or win five seats if Republicans capture the Presidency.
With general expectation that Republicans will maintain control of the House, if Republicans can gain control of the White House, and retain control of the Senate they will have the ability to change many public policies. Through the legislative tool of budget reconciliation they will be able to make major policy initiatives from repealing most of Obamacare, passing big budget cuts proposed by House Speaker Paul Ryan when he chaired the House Budget Committee, and reversing social policies from funding of Planned Parenthood to refugee policies.
In coming weeks I plan to review the key Senate races.
Tom Block is a public policy consultant who had a 21-year career with JP Morgan Chase where he served as head of government relations in New York City and created a Washington research product. He also created the bank’s EU Government Relations program and developed a new position as U.S. Government Policy Strategist focusing on how U.S. government policy impacts capital markets. He has an extensive government and banking background, has worked on political campaigns and as a speech writer. He is a family trustee of Bernheim Arboretum in Louisville and holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from American University. He and his wife make their home in Kentucky. He is a regular contributor to KyForward. Contact him at tomblockct@aol.com.