Consumer spending for the upcoming Easter holiday is expected to reach a near-record $23.6 billion nationwide, and overall retail sales for 2025 are projected to grow at least 2.7 % to $5.42 trillion, according to recent surveys by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Spending by Easter shoppers this month is anticipated to surpass last year’s total by more than 5% — approaching the record $24 billion spent in 2023.
The overall retail sales forecast for 2025 is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth — and comes as welcome news amid consumer worries about recent federal tariff policy and lingering fears of inflation.
“While there is undoubtedly some uncertainty in our current economic landscape, we are thankfully seeing strong indicators of a healthy retail environment,” said Kentucky Retail Federation (KRF) president Tod Griffin. “And as spring blooms across the Bluegrass State, Kentucky retailers are excited to showcase their first-class selection, value and service.”
According to this year’s Easter survey, the most popular purchasing categories include: candy (92%), food (89%), gifts (65%), decorations (51%) and clothing (49%). Shoppers’ favored destinations for stocking up on holiday items are: discount stores (55%), department stores (44%), online (36%) and local small businesses (26%).
Conducted March 3-7, the NRF’s Easter survey polled 7,970 adult consumers nationwide about their holiday shopping plans.
The NRF’s overall retail sales outlook for 2025 projected continued momentum for economy, “bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains.” However, it also noted that “significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence.”
The 2025 retail forecast is based on economic modeling that considers a variety of indicators including employment, wages, disposable income, consumer credit and previous retail sales.
The Kentucky Retail Federation is a non-profit trade association representing diverse businesses across the Commonwealth — from department and drug stores to hardware, apparel and building supply retailers.
For more information about the KRF, please visit kyretail.com.