Strange as it seems, the Democratic Party has a remarkable roster of candidates to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell next year.
Former state Rep. Charles Booker has run for senator twice before and been nominated once and led his primary foes by three points in a mid-October poll.
Right behind him was Amy McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot who gave the likeliest Republican nominee a tough, close race for his congressional seat seven years ago.
Far behind were Pam Stevenson, a retired Air Force colonel and minister who led her party caucus in the state House; Logan Forsythe, a Lexington lawyer and former Secret Service agent from West Kentucky; and Louisville businessman Joel Willett, a former CIA officer who has impressed party leaders.
After the poll was taken, horse trainer Dale Romans entered, with the sort of profile that could win the seat: a middle-roader like West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, backed by Democratic strategist James Carville and the encouragement of Gov. Andy Beshear.
Kentucky is not on national pundits’ list of Senate seats that Democrats are supposed to have any chance of flipping, and Republicans consider the race “a sure-thing slam dunk,” as GOP strategist Tres Watson said last week.
But in the Donald Trump era, nothing is a sure thing. Though Trump is the main reason Republicans are confident, he’s also one reason Democrats think the Senate nomination is worth something. His national job ratings are about as low as they were just after Jan. 6, 2021, and are falling in Kentucky, which he won by 29 points. One recent poll had his net approval (positive minus negative) here at only 2 points; another had it at 14.
Trump’s doing better in Tennessee, but voters there gave Republicans a scare in a special congressional election this month. A moderate Democrat might have flipped the seat.
Republicans all over are starting to distance themselves from Trump, his behavior, his handling of the economy and his controversial appointees, but Kentucky’s three Republican candidates for senator are putting no distance between themselves and the president, since his endorsement in the race would likely be dispositive. But if his actions and those of his administration become much more objectionable, the Republican nominee could find himself in a disreputable ditch with an unpopular leader.
Among Republican candidates, former attorney general Daniel Cameron leads in polls, but 6th District Rep. Andy Barr is gaining and has a big fund-raising advantage. Businessman Nate Morris trails, but has the best ties to Trump and is getting help from MAGA information channels unfavorable to Barr.
All the major Democrats have assets and liabilities. Booker and Stevenson are unabashed liberals and African Americans in a conservative state where racism still matters. McGrath lost credibility in 2020 when she out-raised McConnell and still lost to him by 20 points (after barely defeating Booker in a primary with unusual circumstances). Forsythe and Willett are unknown and will have trouble getting attention, but have overcome adversity before, and Willett has loaned his campaign $200,000.
Romans may have the most potential, pro and con. He is the most conservative Democrat, but still in the party mainstream on issues such as abortion, health care and immigration – about which he speaks knowledgeably; it’s an issue for the horse industry. But he paid a big fine for immigration violations over a decade ago and has had other legal issues.
“I have not totally vetted him,” Carville said in an interview, “but I know his reputation in the industry is pretty solid.” Carville quit doing hired political work long ago, but still picks favorites and has promoted Romans. “If Democrats are gonna be competitive in places like Kentucky, we’re gonna need these kind of candidates,” he said. “I told him he can use my name; we need to encourage people like this to run as Democrats.”
Beshear encouraged him, Romans told the Paulick Report, a horse-industry publication: “The governor is a friend of mine and I talked to him about it before I ever decided to run. He said it was a good idea: ‘Get out there and run’ and that it was a very noble thing to do.”
Beshear would be Democrats’ best nominee, but a loss would greatly complicate his plan to run for president in 2028. Democrats are anxious to see if he will at last make good on his responsibility as party leader to recruit Democrats for legislative and local races.
State Democratic Party Executive Director Morgan Eaves said she expects more Democrats to run for the legislature than in 2024. Being in a lopsided minority is no fun, but she said potential candidates “are hearing from people in their communities the reality of the Republican agenda. . . . They understand that Republicans were once in the super-minority too, and you’ve got to claw your way out, and they’ve got to be part of the solution.”
The Senate race, at the top of the ticket, will matter.