Welcome, Derby visitors, virtual and in person.
Each year, for you and regular readers, we offer an update on the political tracks and horseflesh of Kentucky, which remain interesting – but pale in comparison to the national landscape, which is seeing unprecedented change and turmoil. So, this report is mainly about how Kentucky politicians are meeting that moment.
The top performer is probably Mitch McConnell, who is clearly relishing the independence he gained when he stepped down as Senate Republican leader ahead of announcing that he wouldn’t seek re-election next year. He voted against three Cabinet nominees (Kennedy, Hegseth and Gabbard) and has questioned President Trump’s tariff strategy.
But McConnell is a lame-duck outlier in a party where electeds are scared of Trump, his rich allies, and his supporters. A good example of that, and how it’s no longer McConnell’s party, is the developing race to succeed him. The two announced candidates, U.S. Rep. Andy Barr and former state attorney general Daniel Cameron, are going all out to win Trump’s endorsement or keep someone else from getting it, including criticizing McConnell for those votes. The other likely entrant, wealthy businessman Nate Morris, has implicitly attacked both of them for being too close to the senator.
Cameron, due to his statewide service and nomination for governor in 2023, is much better known than Barr, who represents the Sixth District, which covers most of the horsey Bluegrass region. But Barr, thanks to his 12 years in Congress and his high position on the House Financial Services Committee, has a lot more money – $5.3 million to Cameron’s $507,000 – and the endorsement of longtime Rep. Hal Rogers, whose Fifth District has the most Republican voters.
If the race is about who’s closest to McConnell, Cameron will be in much jeopardy because he worked for the senator and his best-known title (after attorney general) is “McConnell protégé.” Barr was a McConnell intern, so he will also be a target for Morris – who has ties to Donald Trump Jr. and Vice President J.D. Vance, who has Kentucky roots. The president endorsed Cameron in the 2023 primary for governor, but recently told Barr in public, “Good luck with everything. I hear good things.”
The race could use a candidate, and we could use a senator, not in thrall to Trump. It could be Fourth District Rep. Thomas Massie, who has irked Trump enough that the president has vowed to find a challenger for him. Massie says he’s seeking re-election and doesn’t fear Trump. He noted last month that he’s beaten challengers “who tried to be more MAGA than me. None busted 25 percent because my constituents prefer transparency and principles over blind allegiance.”
A dark-horse candidate is commentator Scott Jennings, a McConnell protégé who has completed his post-McConnell rebranding and become the top Republican pundit on CNN – and thus probably the most visible Kentuckian on the national political scene. Asked recently on an American Experiment podcast if he had any interest in running, he suggested he might get in if Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear changed his mind and entered the race: “It’s incumbent on the party to get the best possible nominee. . . . If he were to get into the race, it’d be a real campaign.”
Beshear, the nation’s most popular Democratic governor thanks mainly to his handling of the pandemic and other disasters, can’t seek re-election in 2027 and is running for president. He has a political action committee and a new podcast, and has been selectively and carefully critical of Trump. He was on Kamala Harris’ short list for VP last year but didn’t get interviewed. He’s probably the only Kentucky Democrat who could win a Senate seat, something not done since Wendell Ford was re-elected in 1992. But if Trump and his party implode, Beshear aide Rocky Adkins could join state Rep. Pam Stevenson of Louisville in the primary. Adkins, a moderate-conservative from Appalachia, is our version of Joe Manchin and a friend of the former West Virginia senator.
Beshear’s most likely successor is First District Rep. James Comer, who has carried Trump’s water and got a lot of right-wing TV time as chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee. He lost the GOP gubernatorial primary by 83 votes in 2015 and badly wants another shot at running the state. (Third District Rep. Morgan McGarvey, D-Louisville, could be a dark horse in that race, but stands to gain clout if Democrats retake the House in 2026.) The other Republican House member, Brett Guthrie of the Second District, is in the hot seat as chair of House Energy and Commerce, which has been told to cut $880 billion from health care. That would have to come mainly from Medicaid, which covers more than 1 in 3 Kentuckians. What a moment to meet.