It seemed so easy a year ago the way three Northern Kentucky high school football programs made it to state championship games in Lexington.
Beechwood, of course, in Class 2A, and the two Union schools, Ryle and Cooper, in 6A and 5A respectively. Life was good for football up here. The sky was the limit.
And along came 2025. And it’s not so easy as it appeared a year ago.
But is there something of a rebound going on, not just among the voters but the supposedly impartial RPI computerized rankings the KHSAA uses to determine postseason seedings that determine what can be all-important home field advantage in the playoffs.
As in: Who do you think has the advantage when Beechwood has to head off the 300 miles to Mayfield, or vice versa. Or Paducah Tilghman having to head to, or host, Covington Catholic.
In the postseason, geography can be destiny in Kentucky. Which is why the RPI matters so much.
Here’s a look at the rankings from voters and pundits in each class, then how RPI treats them. The KYHSSPORTSZONE people and the SI.com Kentucky experts do the ranking here.
CLASS 1A: Both rankings have Kentucky Country Day No. 1 in Class 1A. Hard to imagine any state where a “Country Day” school is No. 1 in football but there it is. The problem here is that an 8-0 Covington Holy Cross team is no better than No. 6 in one ranking, No. 7 in the other. We know the Indians, despite their one state title, haven’t been exactly a fixture in football, but this year it surely looks like the Latonia guys are getting overlooked behind perennials like Pikeville and Raceland.
But the KHSAA’s RPI rankings overlook the Indians even more, having them No. 9 ahead of No. 11 Newport Central Catholic and No. 12 Newport in a sign that it’s going to be tough to get many home games in the postseason for teams here. They’ll have to be able to win on the road, even against teams ranked higher with 4-4 and 5-3 records.
CLASS 2A: But here’s where the rankings get really dumb. And we’re not talking about the KYHSSPORTZONE people who this week have Beechwood at No. 2 in Class 2A behind Mayfield. Nope, that pick looks positively genius compared to the SI.com folks who have the Tigers all the way down at No. 7 in 2A behind the likes of Belfry (7-1), Prestonsburg (8-0), an Owensboro Catholic (7-1) team Beechwood spanked in last year’s title game, Martin County (7-1) and of course, Mayfield (7-1). Not sure what world the SI.com folks are in but it’s not a reality-based one.
But the Tigers get no better treatment from the KHSAA’s RPI, which seems to be a pattern here, as the Ft. Mitchell team is ranked No. 6 behind all the usual suspects and maybe had better be putting in their reservations from the charter bus people for later in November.
CLASS 3A: Maybe it’s the problem of being pretty much the lone 3A school from Northern Kentucky but Lloyd Memorial should be getting used to it by now although the 8-0 Juggs should not find themselves way down at No. 8, as the SPORTSZONE people have them, or even No. 6 as they are in SI.com. Although the top teams in this class are so spread out, we don’t get to see them playing one another all that much, which is where Lloyd will have to prove itself this year.
And probably do so on the road eventually, although they’ve moved up to No. 4 in RPI which would keep them at home until the semifinals in a class led by a tough Christian Academy-Louisville team (9-0 against a tough all-comers schedule that includes a 34-27 win over 6A Ryle).
CLASS 4A: Northern Kentucky’s strongest class led by Highlands and Covington Catholic gets decent treatment here by the SPORTSZONE voters with the 7-2 Bluebirds No. 3 and the 6-3 Colonels No. 5 while SI.com, which drops Highlands to No. 5 and CovCath No. 8 behind No. 1 Johnson Central. Here’s a tip: If either gets a shot at Johnson Central, the Northern Kentucky team will have a shot wherever that game is played. And even though each of the locals’ records sport a loss to unbeaten Cincinnati Elder, a team no one in Kentucky would beat, Highlands did lose by a point at No. 1 Boyle County and No. 2 Franklin County is the team that upset visiting CovCath in last year’s semifinals. So this, for sure, is a class to be settled in the postseason.
And again, if the postseason is determined by RPI, Northern Kentucky fans had better head to Google Maps for guidance as Highlands is ranked ridiculously low at No. 6 while CovCath is a beyond-belief No. 11, easily the most mis-ranked team in the state. That ranking is so bad that anyone at the KHSAA who sees it should immediately take a look at how its RPI rankings calculate teams’ strengths numerically and figure out what’s wrong. Sure, Boyle County (7-1) deserves to be No. 1. But 10 other teams better than CovCath? No way.
CLASS 5A: Here’s where it gets a little crazy. The SPORTSZONE people have a 5-3 Cooper team at No. 1 while the SI.com rankings have the Jaguars No. 8. In this one, we’ll go with the lower rankings although the Union team is showing some signs of competitive life lately. Owensboro (6-2), Pulaski County (6-2) and Woodford County (7-1) seem to be the other teams in a class where there’s no real consensus.
Look at Cooper, for example, in the RPI. The Jags may be no. 1 in the SPORTSZONE but the KHSAA’s RPI has them at No. 12. That’s right – No. 12. Way behind the likes of the 1-2-3 RPI teams – Pulaski County, Woodford County and Owensboro – where the KHSAA computers pretty much match the experts’ picks.
CLASS 6A: Ryle is still the team for Northern Kentucky in the biggest school category that has the 5-3 Raiders either No. 4 by SPORTSZONE or No. 6 by SI.com. But one caution here is that SI.com has Louisville Trinity (6-2 against a tough tri-state schedule) down at No. 3 behind South Warren (8-0) and du Pont Manual (6-2). Not sure about ranking anyone ahead of Trinity until they beat the Shamrocks.
The RPI has Ryle at No. 6, setting up the district showdown Friday in Union against No. 10 Simon Kenton. Looks like the KHSAA rankings have this one right.
Contact Dan Weber at dweber3440@aol.com. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) @dweber3440.