WASHINGTON – One thing you can say about Sen. Rand Paul’s burgeoning presidential campaign – he’s not scaring anybody out of the race.
The Republican National Committee reports that the 2016 primary field has mushroomed to about 25 legitimate contenders — the size of a major league baseball roster — and growing, which certainly could make for an interesting party debate where you quite literally won’t be able to tell the players without a scorecard.
Despite the RNC’s claims of legitimacy there are a few apples in the barrel who have about as much chance of moving into the Oval Office two years hence as Christian Laettner has of being elected mayor of Lexington. How many times, for instance, is the American public supposed to put up with the likes of Rick Santorum?
But there are some heavy hitters in the bunch. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, you may have heard that name associated with the White House in the past, disrupted the field early on by announcing his intention to “explore’’ the possibility of a candidacy, which is like Christopher Columbus saying he’s building the Nina, Pinta and Santa Maria to explore the possibility of a new route to India – once you’ve made the investment, you’re in.
The plot grew even thicker earlier this month when Mitt Romney, who fell short by a mere 5 million votes when he challenged President Obama in 2012, made it known that he is willing to once again enter the breach for the good of the nation, leaving at least 47 percent of the nation wondering how in the world we ever got along without him.
And there are other interesting names. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is the darling of the Tea Party if not his fellow GOP lawmakers. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has both Tea Party and establishment support, but he’s about as exciting as soggy tofu. And Dr. Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon who stands out because he has no political record to vilify, said nasty things about the administration’s record in the president’s presence and is an African-American in an otherwise all white field.
In other words, the nation could be in for either the political equivalent of the Charge up San Juan Hill or the Charge of the Light Brigade, all according to how things turn out in November 2016.
It’s unlikely 25 individuals will make it to the starting gate but even a dozen or so in the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary could ultimately skew the outcome. It’s possible that a huge field consisting of big-name, well-financed candidates will result in a contender capturing a state with something like 10 percent of the vote. A candidate with views far outside the mainstream but with a loyal contingent of starry-eyed supporters will undoubtedly benefit from such a crowded ballot.
All of which presents the presumed candidates with a challenge — how does one separate himself from the mob while simultaneously leaving enough elbow room to attract sufficient support in the general election?
That’s a mountain Paul, the Republican from Bowling Green, has to climb. He has made small steps toward broadening the base, observing that the nation’s drug laws are ridiculous and have proved particularly devastating to the African-American community, illegal immigrants shouldn’t be forced off the cliff like so many lemmings and that his party should take steps to make it more attractive to individuals of all styles, creeds and colors. But how far is too far to satisfy GOP voters and when is not enough for the general election?
Paul could also look to attract support from isolationists who don’t find it necessary to send in thousands of U.S. troops every time a dictator sneezes, although it’s fair to say he has taken a more militant view on foreign affairs than he appeared to embrace during his successful 2010 Senate campaign. Still, compared to potential foes like Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-SC, Paul could easily be mistaken for Mohandas K. Gandhi.
Paul is further distinguished, or extinguished according to your point of view, by another factor – his record. Crowdpac, a relatively new website created by researchers at Stanford University to categorize candidates based on criteria such as voting history, speech content and money contributors, recently concluded that Paul is the most conservative candidate in the crowded field, which is akin to saying Mt. Everest is the tallest mountain in the Himalayas.
That distinction could very well help Paul in the primaries, which are controlled by voters so far to the right that they’re falling off the page. Iowa, which officially kicks off the campaign season on Feb. 1, 2016, is recognized as possessing a GOP constituency with a particular fondness for those on the right.
So being the most conservative candidate in a field overflowing with Tories could work to Paul’s advantage – in the primaries. Whether it offers any help in the general election is another matter altogether.
The late Sen. Henry M. “Scoop’’ Jackson, D-Washington, a revered figure in the Capitol who twice sought the Democratic presidential nomination in the 1970s, often made it clear, “I may be a liberal but I’m not a damn fool.’’ His reputation for being the most conservative candidate could place Paul in that damn fool category after the GOP has made its choice.
And there exists evidence that Paul could trip over his own two feet in expressing his conservative views when given the opportunity. During a recent appearance in New Hampshire (lord knows what he was doing there) he blistered the disability portion of the Social Security system:
“Over half the people on disability are either anxious or their back hurts. Join the club. Who doesn’t get up a little anxious for work every day and their back hurts? Everyone over 40 has a back pain.”
The comment plays into the narrative that Republicans, conservatives in particular, believe that the population of the United States consists of a bunch of pikers searching for ways to live off the dole. It displays a willful ignorance of the effects of depression and similar maladies on some unfortunate members of the workforce, as well as individuals unable to continue performing heavy labor because of physical defects.
Romney, who most observers will acknowledge isn’t as conservative as Paul, lost points, and perhaps the election in 2012, after being heard complaining that 47 percent of the nation’s voters essentially wouldn’t vote for him because they were looking for a free ride that he refused to provide. Statements like the one regarding disability payments may not hurt him in the primary, but they can come back to haunt in the general.
Paul has a real shot at the Republican nomination. What then?
Washington correspondent Bill Straub served 11 years as the Frankfort Bureau chief for The Kentucky Post. He also is the former White House/political correspondent for Scripps Howard News Service. He currently resides in Silver Spring, Maryland, and writes frequently about the federal government and politics. Email him at williamgstraub@gmail.com.