By Jamie Leuke
Editor, The Kentucky Lantern
Kentucky’s economy is the nation’s most reliant on global trade, according to a new study that looks at the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on housing prices.
The study found that imports into Kentucky equal 32.3% of the state’s gross domestic product, the highest of any state, while exports make up 16.3% of Kentucky GDP, behind only Louisiana and Texas.
“With robust manufacturing logistics, the state has become a key player in facilitating the movement of goods across borders,” explains the report from the National Association of Realtors.
Trump promises that his taxes on imports will move manufacturing jobs back to this country and raise revenue to pay for tax cuts. His approach has drawn the support of union president Shawn Fain of the United Auto Workers. Trump, who ran on a promise to impose tariffs, won 65% of Kentucky votes last year.
But both of Kentucky’s U.S. senators — Republicans Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul — have broken with the Republican president to oppose his new tariffs. The Kentucky Chamber of Commerce also is voicing opposition to Trump’s trade policy as the numbers suggest Kentucky could be a casualty in a brewing trade war.
Predicting “unnecessary disruptions” to Kentucky’s economy, the state Chamber says Trump’s plans could hurt auto manufacturers, distillers and farmers. China recently responded to Trump’s tariff hikes by increasing its tariff on U.S. soybeans from 60% to 115%. Soybeans are among Kentucky’s most valuable farm commodities, along with poultry and corn. China buys more than half of U.S. soybean exports.
Other states’ foreign trade accounts post bigger numbers, but trade is more significant to Kentucky because of its smaller economy.
Imports are not counted in calculating gross domestic product but comparing imports to state GDP can provide insight into how much a state relies on foreign goods for its economy, the study says. Kentucky’s imports range from parts for manufacturing to consumer electronics. Their prominence in the economy “reflects the state’s deep integration into the global market — especially in pharmaceuticals and automotive industries. Its top import partners are Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan,” says the study by Nadia Evangelou, an economist with the Realtors trade group.
Exports are goods produced and sold to international buyers. “It might surprise some, but Kentucky exports a significant number of cars and aerospace parts. Major companies such as Toyota and GE Aviation operate there. The primary partners are Canada, the U.K., and France, with over $4.5 billion in exports to each country,” says the study .
States like Kentucky and Texas that rely on both imports and exports “are more likely to experience the ripple effects of global supply chain shifts, both positive and negative,” the study says. Indiana, Michigan, and South Carolina also rank high on both exports and imports. “A surge in global demand supports their growth, while disruptions, such as factory shutdowns overseas or sudden tariffs, can present challenges as well.”
Jason Bailey, executive director of the Kentucky Center for Economic Policy, said the state’s manufacturing base reflects both parts imports and product exports and that “strategic tariffs have a role to play as part of a broader industrial policy aimed at key industries, of which Kentucky has several including automobiles and aircraft.”
He also predicts bad outcomes from Trump’s approach. “These across-the-board and on-again, off-again tariffs throw the economy into chaos and uncertainty and cut off the opportunity for trade relationships that are mutually beneficial and that, with good policy, can create better jobs both here and abroad.”
Invoking an emergency law, Trump has imposed, and in some cases later modified, a variety of tariffs, including a 10% tariff on most imports, an extra 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 145% tariff on China. He also imposed — but then paused for 90 days — what he calls reciprocal tariffs on more than 60 trading partners. Trump has levied import fees on iron and steel and a 25% levy on imported car parts due to begin May 3. The Associated Press reports confusion over Trump administration exemptions from the new tariffs for some electronics. The uncertainty is roiling stock and bond values.
Over the last 30 years, the study says, economic growth has been less robust in states like Kentucky that are highly reliant on trade, both in terms of job creation and housing values, probably because of their dependence on manufacturing which has been in decline.
The study says large states where exports are a small part of GDP like New York, Florida and California have economies driven more by services in finance, tourism and entertainment.
“The states that led in home price growth were often those with rapid job growth in tech and services, high levels of domestic migration, and limited housing supply or zoning constraints,” writes Evangelou.
Kentucky tied deeply to global supply chains
“Kentucky is an automotive manufacturing powerhouse, with four major assembly plants and hundreds of auto parts facilities driving $5 billion worth of auto-related exports annually,” says a story about the economic study on realtor.com.
“Pharmaceutical manufacturing in the state drives $3.8 billion worth of exports, while aerospace exports a total of $19 billion.
“Those industries tie Kentucky deeply into global supply chains and rely on imports of components and precursors, with annual imports to the state totaling $94 billion.
“Kentucky’s most famous product, bourbon, is also responsible for $500 million in exports each year. The state’s top import partners are Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan, while its top export recipients are Canada, the U.K., and France.”
This story first appeared in The Kentucky Lantern, a part of States Newsroom, the nation
‘s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization. It is reprinted here under Creative Commons license.