Congress is back in town, oh joy, President-cum-Dictator Donald J. Trump has gone full Looney Tunes, again, with more than two years remaining in his disaster of an administration and Matt Bevins is where he belongs — in the hoosegow.
Oh, and where’s Mitch?
So, it seems an appropriate time to once again take the measure of one Andy Beshear, the Democratic governor in the increasingly shaky Commonwealth of Kentucky and see where his presidential campaign might be headed.
Beshear hasn’t declared his intentions yet — that likely will come soon after the mid-term election in November — and he still has about 15 more months to fulfill the obligations of his current office. But the boy’s running, make no mistake about that, unless you think he’s touring the country because he enjoys eating cold, rubbery chicken at any number of political events and posing with a frozen smile for thousands of photographs.
Let me note first-off that I give Andy a better chance of winning the nomination than most. But even I think it’s unlikely. He has to raise the money, no mean feat, and, running as a moderate, he will have to gain the confidence of a large section of a party that is trending left.
And it’s not like his record as governor is eye-popping, a development that isn’t altogether his fault. Beshear has been dealing with an overwhelmingly Republican General Assembly that has been openly disdainful of his very presence. Beshear has, for instance, sought to reject Kentucky’s near total abortion ban without success. He led a successful fight against a proposed constitutional amendment aimed at providing state funds for non-public schools, a move he called “absolutely devastating to a public school system that already doesn’t have enough,’’ but the General Assembly continues to neglect the state’s common schools.
And it’s not like Andy, the acknowledged leader of the state party, has done himself any favors with party building, a long, boring and frustrating process he has seemingly ignored in favor of running for the White House. Increasing numbers in the state House and Senate might have given his agenda a boost. Instead Democrats are in measurably worse shape than they were when he first assumed office in 2019.
It’s difficult but it can be done — see Mitch McConnell, who built the Kentucky Republican Party into a powerhouse when it was at low ebb.
Beshear does have a few things going for him. He was twice elected governor as a Democrat in an overwhelmingly Republican state. Of course, he lucked into running against incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin in that first race in 2019, one of the most thoroughly despised men in the Commonwealth’s long history, who can now be easily found as a resident of the Louisville Metro Department of Corrections.
Even then, Beshear won by just a little over 5,000 votes, the closest margin since 1899.
He is, however, by many standards, one of the most popular governors in the country. According to a 2025 Morning Consult survey, Beshear was the nations most popular Democratic governor and third overall in the country behind Republicans Phil Scott of Vermont and Mark Gordon of Wyoming.
It’s that positioning that has drawn interest in his presidential run. He earned the Kentucky public’s respect by his actions following a number of disasters, expressing legitimate empathy, for instance, following a devastating tornado in Mayfield in 2021 that killed 57 and a mass shooting at a Louisville bank in 2023 that killed five, including a close Beshear friend.
Beshear also drew praise for his public actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, addressing the public on a nearly daily basis. Regardless, according to the Centers for Disease Control, Kentucky ranked second, behind only West Virginia, in the nation’s COVID death rate, registering 631 deaths.
Jobs growth has been good — especially considering it’s Kentucky — and the administration claims it set a record for economic growth over a five year period. And, unlike his two Republican predecessors, Bevin and Ernie Fletcher, no scandals.
So, Gov. Andrew Graham Beshear, son of former Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear, who I covered for many years, is a man of limited accomplishments who managed to place an empathetic, concerned face on a state government that all too often ignores the needs of its constituents.
Is that good enough to become president of the United States? Probably not. But opportunities might open for him to slide in.
For one thing, the field is not full of potential Franklin Delano Roosevelts. Right now, if pressed, it would appear that California Gov. Gavin Newsome and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced former President Joe Biden on the top of the ticket and lost to Trump in 2024, are the frontrunners. Newsome gets points for sticking it to Trump but the Golden State is a bit of a mess and he emerges as too slick for his own good for a party looking to return to its working-class roots. Harris carries the sin of having lost to Trump so you have to wonder about voters going back to the well. She is, however, the most prominent woman currently in the list of possibilities — Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has backed off — so that could resonate in a party dominated by women.
After that, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Cory Booker, D-NJ, Sen. Rafael Warnock, D-GA, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, are thought to be giving it a look.
And there’s a wild card — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, who likely would carry the banner for Democratic Socialists, is making noise to get in. But does she really want to forfeit the strong position she has forged through will, smarts and personality in a questionable White House run? I think it’s more likely she’ll challenge Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, of New York, in 2028 — the same year as the presidential election.
While several of those candidates are fine, and they undoubtedly look at themselves in the mirror in the morning and see the next president of the United States staring back, none of them are going to knock your socks off. Someone will emerge and, yeah, given the opposition, it could conceivably be Beshear. Pritzker, it should be said, has all the money in the world and he’s constantly in Trump’s face, which plays well with the party. Whether he meets the eye test is another matter.
One thing is working in Beshear’s favor. The Democratic National Committee has given him a gift. The Democrats’ first in the nation primary will not be going to New Hampshire. It’s been awarded to South Carolina and set for Jan. 22, 2028.
That decision simplifies the calculus, really: Andy Beshear has to win the South Carolina primary if he is to have any chance of capturing the nomination.
Think about it: Is there anyone in the group culturally and politically closer to South Carolina than Beshear? One person who has been consistently mentioned, Sen, Jon Ossoff, D-GA, is running for re-election to the Senate this year and has announced he will not seek the presidential nomination two years hence. Another possibility is Warnock, who could capture a treasure trove of Black South Carolina voters. But he’s slated to run for re-election to his Senate seat in 2028. Will he skip that campaign to run for president?
No matter how you slice it, even if Warnock stays in, Beshear has to win South Carolina. Where else is he going to make a stand? Nevada is second on the calendar and he has no sway out there. After that, the Michigan primary is on Feb. 27, 2028, and he’ll have no momentum headed there if he loses South Carolina and doesn’t get an endorsement from Whitmer — the two worked together at the Democratic Governors Association. After that it’s Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states decide, and all bets are off.
Beshear seems to realize this. He praised the changes to the primary calendar. And he has already spent some time in South Carolina. He has formed a mutual respect pact with Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-SC, a highly regarded national political figure who carries a lot of weight with Black voters.
Remember, Clyburn may have won the Democratic presidential nomination for Joe Biden in 2020. Biden had performed poorly in three early primary tests and his campaign seemed to be reeling. Then, just days before the South Carolina showdown, Biden captured Clyburn’s endorsement. He won the Palmetto State primary and the rest is history.
Beshear is also on record noting that he is conducting a nationwide “listening tour” with Black voters. That consists of meeting with Black leaders, attending conferences and promoting diversity.
Remember, Blacks constitute a bit more than 25 percent of South Carolina’s total population and most of those folks vote Democratic. It’s a huge bloc and Beshear, 15 months before the first primary votes are cast, is not going to ignore it.