As a public service, permit me to give you a quick tip on the November 3 election.
If you’re wondering just how extensive, or faltering, the anticipated Democratic blue wave might be, keep a close eye on the results of the showdown between former state senator Ralph Alvarado, of Winchester, and former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo, a Democrat from Lexington, in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District.
Republicans have held the seat in what was once an overwhelming Democratic district since 2012 when Rep. Andy “It’s Not A Sin To Be White’’ Barr, R-Lexington, defeated incumbent Democrat Ben Chandler, of Versailles, in a hotly contested race. Since that time, Barr’s margins of victory have steadily climbed, offering the impression that it is now and for the foreseeable future GOP territory.
But, at least according to the polls, which, it should be noted, are generally conducted by partisan firms and are few and far between, Dembo has a decent chance of pulling the upset. The latest survey from Public Policy Polling, which maintains Democratic ties, shows Dembo up 47-41.
It bears noting, however, that the Public Policy poll, and others, have a large number of undecideds at this late stage and, given the district’s recent voting history favoring Republicans, it’s not stretching a point to claim Alvarado retains a decent chance.
Why does this race bear particular watching? Kentucky’s polls close at 6 p.m. in the Commonwealth’s eastern region, thus assuring that some of the nation’s earliest results will come from the Bluegrass. If Dembo emerges the winner, it’s quite likely the race will indicate a strong blue wave, handing Democrats control of the House and, perhaps, the Senate if things roll their way. Should Alvarado squeak through, the anticipated Democratic tidal wave might just prove to be a trickle.
The tight race is somewhat unexpected, given the district’s recent Republican tendency and the fact that the Kentucky General Assembly, in it infinite wisdom in 2021, clumsily redistricted the city of Frankfort, a reliable Democratic bastion, out of the 6th and into the 1st Congressional District, which is anchored in West Kentucky. That places Frankfort in a district on the banks of the Mississippi River, some 270 miles away, a drive of more than four hours to Wickliffe. The way to Lexington, the kingpin in the 6th District, can be done in little more than a half hour if you take Leestown Road (the voice of experience there).
The change was made ostensibly to protect Barr, who really didn’t need it, and allow Rep. James Comer, R-TheFrankfortLoop, to reside in the capital city if he so chose, keeping him in the 1st District he represents. Regardless, it’s a disservice to the residents of Frankfort and Central Kentucky generally.
Anyway, polling by Democratic outfits showed Dembo with some unexpected strength as early as July, perhaps owing to the decline in popularity of President-cum-Dictator Donald J. Trump, whose tariffs, war of Iran and ensuing hike in fuel costs has finally led some stalwarts to conclude he is an incompetent boob. Since he’s not on the ballot this go-round voters may take their frustrations out on his party.
Alvarado, after declaring his early allegiance to Trump, is working hard to separate himself from this walking, talking disgrace. He, quite pointedly and quite interestingly, refused to attend the rally staged by Trump in Highland Heights on Saturday, conducted to rally GOP turnout.
And Dembo, it should be noted, has conducted a good and vigorous campaign. Alvarado less so.
Otherwise, save, perhaps, for one other federal race on the upcoming Election Day calendar, the die has already been cast. Incumbents Comer in the 1st District, Rep. Brett Guthrie, R-Bowling Green and Rep. Morgan McGarvey, D-Louisville, are all but guaranteed a return to Washington. Joining them will be Ed “The Stooge’’ Gallrein, of Shelby County, who defeated Rep. Thomas Massie in the May primary — good lord, there’s no use going all over that again — and faces nominal opposition in the general.
Despite the general shunning of Trump nationwide, Barr should have little trouble besting former state representative Charles Booker, the Democrat from Louisville, who is terribly underfunded and hasn’t even managed to run any television ads, in succeeding the retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Louisville. It shows just how enfeebled the once formidable Kentucky Democratic Party has let itself become. Those in charge — and we’re looking at you, Gov. Andy Beshear, who wouldn’t recognize party building if it slapped him in the face — should be ashamed.
There’s one other race of interest. No one is paying attention to the contest in the 5th Congressional District pitting the incumbent, Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Somerset, against Prestonsburg attorney Ned Pillersdorf.
Let’s state the obvious — the 5th District in Southeastern Kentucky is historically one of the most reliable GOP strongholds in the entire nation. Democrats have stood little chance. The always reliable Cook Partisan Voting Index places it at R+32, placing it among the nation’s top five GOP voting districts.
It also, according to the 2010 Census maintains the highest percentage of White folks in the nation.
Rogers has represented the district since 1981. The last time he faced any re-election opposition was in 2022 when he received 82.1 percent of the vote. He maintains the longest tenure of any House member. He even has a parkway named after him.
Hal Rogers is also 88 years old. Should he gain re-election, he will re-enter office at age 89. He’s not done much campaigning. While elderly officials like McConnell have chosen to step aside — Mitch is 84 and feeble — Hal keeps plugging along.
It also seems he’s no longer capable of representing his district, the nation’s second poorest, voting for the so-called Big Beautiful Bill, a tax cut measure that drastically slashed Medicaid and other social programs to offset some of the measure’s cost to the Treasury.
Pillersdorf has assumed the unenviable task of opposing Rogers and he’s done a bang-up job, frankly. He’s not an unknown in this part of the state. In 2023 he assumed a leading role representing those caught up in the scandal involving attorney Eric Conn, who bribed all sorts of folks to gain the approval of fraudulent lifetime Social Security disability benefits, many of whom reside in the 5th District. Pillersdorf was able to, among other things, convince the Social Security Administration to reinstate benefits for 500 clients.
A Republican Mt. Everest is a hard hill to climb and Rogers likely will prevail, despite ongoing concerns over the ability of octogenarians — remember President Joe Biden — to fulfill their duties. But the results will provide an interesting study.