President-cum-Dictator Donald J. Trump has never been modest about anything, particularly in regard to his record of political endorsements, asserting that the easiest way for a candidate to gain public office these days is through him.
Writing on his social media site, Truth Social, in late August, Trump insisted that his success rendering personal endorsements is "the strongest" in "the history of politics," placing his most recent triumphs at 100 percent for Senate candidates and 98 percent for those seeking House seats.
And, of course, a significant conquest came in May during the Kentucky primary when he managed to oust his bete noire, seven-term Rep. Thomas Massie, R-SomewhereorotherLewisCounty, in favor of his hand-selected challenger, unknown Ed Gallrein of Shelby County, boosted by about $25 million in Trump maneuvered campaign contributions.
Still, a growing number of Republican candidates, who one sought Trump’s endorsement like it was a free ticket to the Super Bowl, now seem to be, well, lackadaisical about the whole thing, offering a gracious thanks upon receipt and then ignoring his involvement til the whole thing blows over.
Truth is, that old Trump magic is fizzling. An endorsement that once meant a one-way ticket to the Big Time in Washington DC might now just result in a short ride to Palookaville, to quote Terry Malloy.
According to a Reuters survey released this week, most Republican candidates in competitive congressional races are distancing themselves from Trump on issues that may alienate swing voters.
Reuters examined voting records, public statements and campaign materials in 62 competitive U.S. House and Senate races ahead of the Nov. 3 election, according to International Business Times. In 41 of those races, Republican candidates “either broke with Trump on at least one policy issue or downplayed their ties to the president.’’
The reason is obvious – survival. Trump’s popularity is underwater, lost somewhere in the depths of the deep, blue sea. With inflation gas prices and the war in Iran troubling voters, Republican candidates are looking to establish a little independence – for a change.
None of the Republican candidates for federal office in Kentucky are sprinting away from Trump like Usain Bolt. The Massie massacre displayed the risks of crossing El Presidente. Gallrein, for one, quite literally owes his political existence to Trump and will willingly play the stooge for his daddy should he prevail – as he undoubtedly will – in November.
Others who in the past expressed full faith in the Lord of Mar-a-Lago remain firmly on the team but they’re muting their once rousing cheers. Part of that is natural. After amassing the necessary partisan support to win a primary, a candidate often will modify his/her message during the general election campaign to broaden support among independents and disaffected members of the opposing party.
But that has not always been the case with candidates who curried Trump’s favor and relied on the popular movement to push them over the finish line. Now, after a quick look at the polls – the RealClearPolitics polling average on Thursday placed Trump’s approval at a dismal 38.3 percent with disapproval at 59.5 percent – reality has obviously led some candidates to reassess their positioning.
An underwater assessment does tend to change one’s perspective.
The candidates for federal office in Kentucky remain faithful to Trumpism, but they’re certainly exploring ways to loosen the handcuffs. Rep. Andy “It’s Not A Sin To Be White’’ Barr, R-Lexington, who is running for the Senate to replace the retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Louisville, and former Republican state senator Ralph Alvarado, of Winchester, running to fill Barr’s vacated seat in the Lexington-based 6th Congressional District, two full-fledged Trumpsters who received his support in the GOP primary, have made modest changes to establish they are not Trump puppets – at least until after the election and they can go back to being their usual bootlicker selves.
Barr hasn’t abandoned Trump. In fact, on Oct. 1, he publicly praised El Presidente for announcing that China will import at least 10 million metric tons of American coal in both 2027 and 2028. Whether Kentucky coal is involved in the deal or China follows through — the country has been known to renege – remains unclear.
But now, instead of expressing his fidelity with Trump, Barr is emphasizing the need for Republicans to retain control of the Senate, arguing during a recent appearance in Pikeville that it’s vital for Republicans to retain McConnell’s seat because “if we lose the Senate, we will lose our country.’’
And it was earlier reported by Louisville Public Media and others that Barr had made changes to his campaign website that de-emphasized the tight-as-a-tick relationship he maintained with Trump during the primary.
The outlet reported Barr’s website during the primary prominently displayed that he is, “Trump-Endorsed” with a photo of Barr standing side-by-side with the great man as recently as July 8.
Now, the site reported, “it’s a picture of Barr with two of his children, and instead of trumpeting the endorsement and being “100% America First,” the lead text reads that Barr is “Kentucky First Always.”
There were other changes. Under one website tab, Louisville Public Media said, “Barr deleted all mentions to the president, including a phrase stating he would be “a Senator who will fight for limited government and stand with President Trump.” He also deleted the following paragraph from his biography: “Andy was the first member of the Kentucky delegation to endorse President Trump in 2024, and he served as the Chairman of Trump’s primary campaign in the Commonwealth. Andy has consistently fought to advance the America First agenda in the House and will be the President’s biggest advocate in the Senate.’’
All that can be attributed to Barr retooling his primary campaign to broaden his appeal. But it can also be viewed as evidence of a perceived diminution in Trump’s attraction and the ability to bring out voters who view him as the messiah and Andy Barr as one of his apostles.
Regardless, Barr remains a heavy favorite to defeat his Democratic challenger, Charles Booker, a former state representative from Louisville, on Nov. 3.
Alvarado, however, is another question.
In a campaign season where Democrats are expected to find some success, Alvarado is expected to face a tough test in his race against Zach Dembo, a Lexington native and erstwhile federal prosecutor. Alvarado has been around the circuit for a while, leaving the state completely in 2023 to serve as the Tennessee commissioner of health before returning in 2025. But he’s best known as the GOP’s candidate for lieutenant governor on the ticket in 2019 with incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin, a possible sore point since Bevin is generally recognized as one of the worst and most unpopular governors in Commonwealth history, failing in that re-election bid.
Like Barr, Alvarado’s candidacy was blessed by Trump and he characterized himself as an “American First Fighter,’’ this citing Trump’s political movement, and included several glowing references to Trump in his campaign website. Alvarad’os prospects were enhanced by the fact that Trump carried the 6th Congressional District by about 15 points in 2024. But with Trump’s national support tanking and affordability emerging as a major campaign issue, Alvarado started backing off from his Trump love.
In late August, NBC News reported that Alvarado removed a series of pro-Trump messages from the homepage of his website and even deep-sixed a photo of them standing together. Now, rather than providing undying allegiance to Trumpsterism,
Alvarado is promising to provide “independent leadership for Kentucky.’’
Both NBC News and the Lexington Times reported that the changes were made after a poll showed the race tied and that Democrats were kicking up their support for Dembo.
There’s reasons for Alvarado’s concern. According to POLLSMAX, an aggregate of five polls shows Alvarado with a slim lead – 45.3 percent to 41.9 percent. Those numbers are interesting since, in a district Trump carried by double digits, the Republican remains well below the magic 50 percent mark. Meanwhile, a poll issued Sept. 30 from Democratic pollster GQR, an outfit run by the ever-reliable Anna Greenberg and others, shows Dembo ahead 42 percent to 37 percent.
Trump is on the ropes. Republican candidates are beginning to assess they don’t want to go down with him.