By Tom Latek
Kentucky Today
A tropical system is now brewing in the Gulf, and its remnants could bring heavy rain to Kentucky by late this weekend, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
The National Hurricane Center, part of the NWS, has been tracking the system for the last several days, and is forecasting a near 100 percent chance of the system becoming a named tropical storm with sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hours by late on Thursday. If it does, it would be the ninth tropical storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and would be called “Isaias” (pronounced “ees-ah-EE-ahs”, by the way).
The strong El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has so far suppressed hurricane formation in the Atlantic and Gulf this year. With reliable records available back to the middle of the 19th Century, there have only been two years without Atlantic hurricanes, 1907 and 1914. Of course, those two years were before weather satellites provided full coverage of the oceans. Since the satellite era, the fewest hurricanes in a single year have been two, in both 1982 and 2013.
The most named systems in a single year is 30 in 2020. They ran out of names, so the National Hurricane Center had to use Greek letters. going up to Theta. Since then, a supplemental list of names has been developed, if there are more than 21 named storms in a single year.
The NWS office in Louisville notes, the tropical system is expected to track into the continental United States and bring rain chances to Kentucky.
They add that there is still uncertainties with the track and strength of this system, therefore there is low confidence in the details for the weekend.
Guidance displays two main outcomes for the area that is dependent on the systems track, timing, and strength. Generally, the consistencies lie with onset time late Saturday into Sunday, with rain chances all day Sunday.
As of late Tuesday, precipitation totals are forecast to range from 0.5″ – 1″ across the state. High-end amounts are closer to 2″ with swaths of 2.5″ through central Kentucky.