By Paul Braverman
Special to NKyTribune
DON’T BE STUBBORN
In one of the greatest racetrack gambling stories of all time, a man named Kerry Packer placed a bet of $7 million Australian dollars (the equivalent of $10 million U.S. dollars) on the favorite in the 1987 Sydney Cup, at the Randwick Racecourse in Sydney, Australia. The horse’s name was Myocard. Mr. Packer was so confident in Myocard, that he refused to bet even $1 dollar on his own horse in the race, named Major Drive, a horse he thought had a chance. Nor did he box both horses in an exacta.
Myocard ran a stellar race but only good enough for second, as Major Drive romped home at odds of 4:1. So Mr. Packer left $32 million Australian on the table, because he was too sure of himself, and too stubborn to have a back-up bet on his own entry.
However, he was quite the gentleman in defeat. When the winning jockey, Greg Hall went to a victory celebration at Packer’s home the next evening, he was worried he wasn’t going to be well received. Instead, Packer came up to Hall and said, “I’m proud of you, even though you cost me $32 million.”
I have never been overly confident when it comes to betting horses. Especially, when we ask 3-year-olds to race in a 20-horse field, something they will never do again in their life.
Moreover, they are running 1¼ miles, the furthest they have ever run in their life. So, I will go against the overwhelming favorite, Journalism (#8, 3-1) and give you a solid long shot for Saturday, because I always try to beat the favorites.
In this year’s Derby, I am lucky to have my 3rd Kentucky Derby starter, whose name is Neoequos (#2, 30-1). Unlike Mr. Packer, I don’t have confidence and believe he may be a little behind the others in development. Thus, I am not picking nor recommending you bet him. I am just happy to be in the race and part of the festivities. My token bet on Neoequos will be a sentimental one.
INTERESTING FACT
One point worth mentioning is that picking the winner of the Derby is not about selecting a great horse. It is about selecting who will be “King for a Day.” Why do I say that? Because the last three winners of the Kentucky Derby never won another race in their lives. So, this exercise is not necessarily about picking a future champion. It is about finding a tulip on that precise day it comes into full bloom.
TULIPS AND RACEHORSES
Before we start, you need to understand the sprouting of a tulip bulb. There are five stages in the sprouting cycle. First stage, the bulbs are planted. Second, a touch of green emerges, but no bud or blooms. Third, a bud appears, and the leaves are lush and grown. Fourth, there is early tulip color, and the first bloom appears. Fifth stage, the tulip is in full bloom, with all of its splendid color. Tulips in the garden will typically bloom for two weeks, while cut tulips in a vase will last for 5-7 days. Tulips have viewing performance cycles, as do racehorses.
Tulips are planted in the fall, ideally October or November. Two year-old racehorses generally debut in August or September. Here is the difference between the two: tulips will very predictably sprout in March or early April. Horses can sprout as early as January or as late as June. Horsemen always hope they sprout in late April and are in full bloom two weeks later, because the first Saturday in May is when the top 20 three-year-olds load into the starting gate for the most prestigious race in the world, the Kentucky Derby.
Now you ask, what does the sprouting of tulips have to do with the Kentucky Derby?
Stay tuned, because you are about to find out.
DERBY QUIZ
I am going to ask you 4 questions and also give you the answers:
1. Would you ever bet a horse to win the Kentucky Derby, who never won a race in its life?
Answer: Hell no
2. Would you bet a horse to break its maiden in the Kentucky Derby, considering that feat has not been accomplished in 92 years, since 1933?
Answer: Forget about it.
3. Would you bet a horse to win the Kentucky Derby trained by a trainer who is 0 for 26 in the race?
Answer: Not a chance.
4. Would you bet a horse to win the Kentucky Derby ridden by a jockey who is 0 for 8 in the race, with a best finish of 4th ?
Answer: No way.
BOMBS AWAY
My pick to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby is the maiden, Publisher (#13, 20-1), a non-winner in 7 starts. He is trained by a trainer who has never won the Derby in 26 tries, and ridden by a jockey who is winless in 8 attempts. I can envision Sunday’s headline:
FORMER MAIDEN, PUBLISHER SHOCKS RACING WORLD WITH KENTUCKY DERBY UPSET.
Now that you think I am crazy, before deciding to toss this analysis, I would advise you of the following facts: (a) Publisher had very bad trips in both the Southwest Stakes in January, and the Rebel Stakes in February. He was blocked in one and squeezed in the other, right when he
was making his move, (b) Blinkers were added for the Arkansas Derby in March, and without any interference, he was a nice closing second, (c) I watched his workout at Churchill Downs April 19th , it was impressive, and I would say he just started stage 5 of the tulip sprouting cycle, looking to now be in full bloom, (d) We measure speed in racing with something called Beyer Numbers. His last 3 Beyers are 81, 86 and 95. Anything over 100 can win the Derby and his progression is heading in that direction, (e) his trainer, Steve Asmussen, is the all-time leading trainer in U.S. racing history, (f) his jockey, Irad Ortiz, has won the Eclipse award as leading jockey in the U.S., five of the last seven years. The human connections of Publisher are not underachievers in our sport. In fact, they are two of our biggest overachievers. They have just been unlucky in this penultimate race.
Can the 92-year jinx be broken by a maiden this Saturday?. I hope so, because the morning line odds of 20-1 are enticing.
One last point: Publisher’s sire is American Pharoah. He not only won the Derby; he also won the Triple Crown.
THE HIDDEN MESSAGE HERE IS THAT PRIOR TO NOW, ALL OF PUBLISHER’S RACES TOOK PLACE WHILE HE WAS ONLY A SPROUTING BUD. ON SATURDAY, HE WILL BE A FULLY BLOOMED TULIP, ABOUT TO DISPLAY ALL OF HIS INNER BEAUTY. AS STRANGE IT SOUNDS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TULIP COULD WIN THE RUN FOR THE ROSES.
Good luck to Publisher and good luck to you.
Enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports.
Paul Braverman, an attorney and CPA, retired from a 30-year career in the investment management industry, serving his last 22 years as CFO and Partner of Wellington Management Company, LLP. He has been a Thoroughbred owner and breeder since 1979. This year, he will send out his 3rd Kentucky Derby entry in Neoequos.
Paul serves on the boards of several nonprofit entities, including as member of the Board of Directors and Treasurer for the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund, Inc. (PDJF), which supports horse racing jockeys that have suffered catastrophic injuries due to an on-track accident.
He releases his annual Kentucky Derby Analysis to a select list of individuals in his network and has allowed the NKyTribune to share it in hopes of promoting awareness and support for the PDJF. Please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. For more information visit www.pdjf.org.