After 17 years finagling and conniving as the Republican leader in the U.S. Senate, Mitch McConnell finds himself on the spot. His maneuvering over the next few days could determine whether he can maintain the confidence of his caucus, not to mention what sort of impact it might have on his already shaky legacy.
McConnell, of Louisville, has been involved over the past several weeks attempting to forge a path to bolster the southern border while simultaneously dispatching billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine and Israel, with the former flagging in its efforts to repel a Russian invasion that has now extended 23 months.
Thus far, the 81-year-old McConnell has managed to alienate GOP lawmakers on all sides of the disparate, incendiary debate, resulting in a very real threat to the continued existence of Ukraine while thousands of souls continue to pour in from Mexico.
By all accounts a deal was mostly in place.
Then it wasn’t.
Now it remains a possibility, at least according to Mitch, who said on Thursday that talks are “ongoing,” after acknowledging the day before, according to PunchBowl News and CNN, that the politics of the whole mess had changed and that, perhaps, it wouldn’t be wise to “undermine” the White House aspirations of former President Donald J. Trump, who has all but sewn up the GOP nomination for the third time.
McConnell, it seems, thought it best to throw cold water on the situation, given that congressional Republicans faced a “quandary” since Trump, in his inimitable fashion, vociferously opposed the package, preferring instead to use immigration as a campaign issue against President Biden, who is seeking re-election.
Senate Republicans, it seems, have a new leader, and it isn’t Mitch.
There were rumblings within the MAGA constituency over the border deal even before McConnell’s “quandary” comment. The Hill, a Capitol Hill newspaper, reported on Tuesday that conservatives in the upper chamber were kvetching about the package before Trump weighed in.
“Republicans including Sens. Mike Lee (Utah), Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Ted Cruz (Texas) complained about being left in the dark about key details and warned that the deal could hurt Republicans’ chances of keeping control of the House in the 2024 election, according to senators present at a lunch meeting where the issue was discussed,’’ the paper reported.
“Senators said their colleagues were close to shouting at each other as tempers flared during the contentious discussion,” it said.
As has become commonplace in Republican circles, the party’s direction revolves solely around Trump, who is pushing a hard line on immigration, demanding that Republican lawmakers reject any compromise unless they get, according to his Truth Social media platform, “EVERYTHING needed to shut down the INVASION of Millions & Millions of people.”
Trump insists the border will be secure should he become president, although it remained porous during his four years in office. McConnell maintains, reasonably, that the deal under discussion is the best Republicans can hope for. While Republicans are favored to capture the Senate in November, it’s highly unlikely they’d gain sufficient seats to offset a potential Democratic filibuster on any intransigent immigration efforts favored by Trump.
And, while the Senate may land in GOP hands, it’s looking likely Democrats can retake the House, an outcome that would put the kibosh on any Trump border plans should he be elected, which in and of itself is no sure thing.
Regardless, Republicans are afraid of crossing Trump in any way and will, as Little Peggy March said, “follow him wherever he may go.” It also could result in the end of Ukraine. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, made it clear late last year that his chamber won’t consider additional military aid for the embattled country without the imposition of border security reforms here in the U.S.
Biden in October asked for about $61.5 billion in new aid to supply Ukraine with additional weapons. The request has not yet been considered. Previously approved funds dried up in December. Now, according to Celeste Wallander, a spokeswoman for the Department of Defense, Ukraine is running low on ammunition.
The Pentagon, Wallander said believes “that units do not have the stocks and stores of ammunition that they require,” as a result of congressional inaction.
The fall of Ukraine would leave an indelible black mark on McConnell’s tenure, especially since he has been particularly passionate in his support of the beleaguered nation, characterizing the proposed military aid as the GOP’s top congressional priority. He weighed in on the immigration issue only after House Republicans insisted that a secured border receive attention before they would agree to dispatch more money to Ukraine.
Even before this debate McConnell had managed to alienate many of the MAGA stalwarts. Sen. Rick Scott, R-FL, who openly warred with McConnell during his tenure leading the GOP’s ineffective 2022 Senate campaigns, challenged McConnell for the leadership post last year, the first time he faced any opposition. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-TX, once called him a liar. Sen. Josh Hawley, R-MO, is engaged in a running battle with McConnell over several leader-backed nominees to various boards, still sore at McConnell for supposedly striking an amendment to the defense authorization act that would have included several folks around St. Louis in the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act.
Then there is his old BFF turned sour and fellow Kentuckian, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Bowling Green, who said McConnell was bound to sell out on border security and alluded to McConnell leading a “wing of the party that’s the opposite of everything I believe in.”
Meanwhile, folks who support strengthened border security and seek aid to Ukraine reacted negatively to McConnell’s “quandary” comment.
“It was hard for me to see what Leader McConnell was suggesting,” said Sen. Mitt Romney, R-UT. “He seems to be of two minds in the conversation. But reading the reports this morning and the fact that he hasn’t corrected them suggests that he is inclined to listen to what former President Trump wants.”
Romney’s view changed on Thursday, telling reporters, “Leader McConnell removed any question about his support. He’s said he’s fully supportive of the border bill as he indicated for the last several weeks.”
Of course the odd thing here is that McConnell and Trump can’t stand each other. Never could. But that didn’t stop Mitch from helping create the myth that surrounds Trump today, serving as his primary enabler during his four years in office, pushing through a tax cut that deepened the national debt and leading the way toward ruining the Supreme Court.
McConnell finally broke from Trump over the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capital, asserting that, “Former President Trump’s actions preceding the riot were a disgraceful dereliction of duty … There is no question that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day.”
Trump responded with his usual display of insults, ridiculed his wife, and said he should be removed as Senate Republican leader.
Still, McConnell had his chance. He didn’t swing and miss. He struck out looking. He refused to support Trump’s impeachment for his Jan. 6 actions and, in fact, has declared he will vote for Trump if he is the GOP nominee.
In a sense, then, if this immigration-Ukraine package collapses, McConnell will have fallen victim to his own devices.