Two long, long years ago, then-Vice President Kamala Harris appeared to be on the verge of winning the White House. The polls were tight but she had a razor-thin lead heading into the Nov. 5 election and all she had to do was pick off a couple of the seven states identified as toss-ups, several of which seemed to exist as traditional Democratic territory, to claim the prize.
She won exactly none of them. Harris was literally shut out by President-cum-Dictator Donald J. Trump, losing in places like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, leading to the tragedy and disaster America is currently confronting.
Now it’s time for the midterms and a lot of analysts are predicting a “blue wave’’ with Democrats re-taking control of both the House and Senate from reeling Republicans, perhaps by overwhelming margins. The public has had its fill of Trumpism and they will be taking it out on GOP office-seekers.
Allow me to put the brakes on that overwhelming optimism, at least to a point. Democrats are more than likely to gain control of the House, but not to the degree of, say, the seven Senate and 63 House seats Republicans gained in 2010, or even the 41 House seats Democrats captured in 2018. And, while it could run close, I expect the GOP will retain control of the Senate, perhaps a 50-50 split with that ding-a-ling, Vice President JD Vance, providing the tie-breaker to give the Republicans an edge.
Believe me, I wish I could join in the enthusiasm. Kalshi, a prediction market that will let you bet on election results, something new in the process, on Thursday gave Democrats a 95 percent chance of winning the House and a 67 percent chance of taking the Senate. All the old reliables, Larry Sabato, the Cook Political Report, you name ‘em, are looking at an awe-inspiring Democratic takeover.
My anticipation is more modest. Let me explain.
All the polls are pointing toward a big night for Democrats, but I’m wondering just how much faith can be invested in the surveys. Veteran pollster Frank Luntz, who started on the GOP team but is now trying to play it down the middle, noted that polling firms in recent years have experienced difficulty in finding voters willing to participate and that the problem is particularly intense as it regards Republicans.
“There’s more hostility on the Republican side toward polling than the Democrats, which means that Republicans are more likely to hang up the phone,’’ Luntz said.
That, of course, skews results. The pros realize this and are taking pains to address the situation. But, as 2024 showed, there remains a problem with a Republican undercount to consider. That could be key in tightly contested races in traditional GOP territory.
And there’s Trump, who is proving about as popular as COVID-19. RealClearPolitics, as of Thursday, in its average of public polls, places Trump’s approval at 38.4 percent and disapproval at 60.1.
Those figures would place anyone under water. But the members of the Trump cult are faithful and if their savior tells them to go to the polls and vote Republican, they’ll do it and it could impact some races on Election Day.
We saw Trumps’ power to draw the faithful in Kentucky back in May. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-SomewhereorotherLewisCounty, was a popular figure in the Northern Kentucky 4th Congressional District over seven terms, running at times without opposition. Then he got crossways with Trump who convinced a nobody to oppose Massie in the GOP primary.
That nobody, Ed Gallrein, won by 10 points, all because of Trump’s backing. This year Trump is telling folks at his rallies to pretend he is on the ballot. A lot more of his brainwashed followers could follow that direction than most analysts are counting on.
And money. This is already the most expensive midterm election in history. AdImpact reports that $11.2 billion has been spent on aired ads and future reservations this season with the GOP outspending Democrats by hundreds of millions of dollars. Elon Musk, who doubles as the world’s richest man and biggest moron, has personally spent an estimated $442 million getting Republicans elected. Like it or not, money talks in politics and the GOP has a louder voice than the Democrats.
The midterm congressional redistricting that occurred in certain states won’t completely upend Democratic advances but it could slow it down, if only modestly. Tennessee, just as a for instance, has divied up the far western congressional district centered on Memphis, a Democratic bastion, into three different districts, diluting the Democratic vote and creating a map consisting of nothing but majority Republican districts throughout the state. Nine states approved new districts and only one, California, was done for the benefit of Democrats.
Then there are the Democrats themselves. Just because Republicans have fallen out of favor doesn’t mean the party of Kennedy and Roosevelt has vaulted into the hearts and minds of the American electorate, In the wide open spaces of this country, the Democratic Party is still viewed as the urban party, riddled with claims of being woke, whatever the hell that means, and engaging in identity politics, a complaint Trump and his legion of bigots have used to great success. Just how many folks in the rural reaches of this nation’s midsection are going to tromp to the polls and pull the Democratic lever after years of allegiance to the GOP?
Then there is the long list of Trump lies, his disinformation campaign, the threat of posting the National Guard or ICE at certain polling stations. You get the picture.
Now, all that said, it doesn’t mean the Republicans are going to experience some sort of glorious turnaround at this late stage. The cards, at least in the House, were stacked against them.. Historically, the party that controls the White House loses congressional seats in the midterm election. Since 1962, only Presidents Bill Clinton in his second term and George W. Bush in his first, managed to add House seats, Clinton for the Democrats and Bush for the Republicans, for their party. Everybody else lost seats, including Trump, who suffered the loss of 41 GOP House seats in 2018.
With Republicans already maintaining a slim five-seat advantage in the lower chamber, and Trump leading the nation down the abyss with inflation, lack of affordability, the war with Iran and a simply unbelievable degree of corruption, the Republican fate was sealed long ago.
But, given all the cited circumstances, it’s hard to believe the Democrats can achieve the 63 seats picked up by Republicans in 2010 or the 52 the party gained in 1994. The average loss is 24, which would give the Democrats 238 seats, give or take, with the GOP holding 194. But given the previously cited conditions, and the partisan divide, it will prove difficult for the Democrats to reach that level, perhaps picking up 10 to 20.
The party in the White has historically performed better in the Senate during the midterms but even that’s a mixed bag. The party in power gained seats six times since 1962 but never more than two at a time. Meanwhile, Obama lost nine seats for the Democrats in 2014.
Democrats currently hold 47 Senate seats if you include the two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. That means they have to pick up four seats to attain the majority. It seems to have one in the bag – former governor Roy Cooper seems to have that race wrapped up to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
That means Democrats have to add three seats currently held by Republicans while maintaining the seats up for grabs that they already hold. The most obvious targets are Maine, Texas, Kansas, Ohio and Alaska. Four other Republican held states – Montana, Iowa, Florida and Nebraska are available, but the first five are more likely targets.
It will be a tough haul. Ohio stands as the most probable pick-up despite its turn to the right over the past few years with the Democrat, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, holding a leaf over incumbent Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the post and, according to the president of the United States, has a delightful derriere.
Maine would seem obvious, it’s pretty much a blue state, but the Republican Sen. Susan Collins, for some inexplicable reason, seems to cast a spell over voters in the Pine Street State every six years.
Kansas is a stretch given its history, but the incumbent Republican, Sen. Roger Marshall, has proved himself a boob, filing lawsuits against patients who had unpaid medical bills during his time as an obstetrician-gynecologist. His Democratic challenger, Roger Marshall, is a pastor at a Methodist church. Alaska is kind of kooky, with two men named Dan Sullivan – one an independent and the other the incumbent Republican senator — competing for the same job with Democrat Mary Peltola holding a slight edge and trying to take advantage of the confusion.
Then there’s good, ole Texas, where Republicans are trying to shove an obvious grifter down the throats of the American public. State Attorney General Ken Paxton has the sort of sordid background that would disqualify him from holding a position like dog catcher, so Lone Star State Republicans, obviously made him theor candidate for the U.S. Senate. The Democrat, James Talarico, has waged a heroic campaign against a man who shouldn’t be allowed within the DC city limits.
And, don’t forget, under this scenario, Democrats can’t afford to lose any seats they currently hold. That comes into play in three instances – Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
In Michigan, with offers a light blue hue, former Wayne County (Detroit) health director Abdul El-Sayed, seeking to become the first Muslim in the upper chamber, has a slight lead over former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in a bid to replace the retiring Democrat, Sen. Gary Peters. El-Sayed is, of course, simultaneously fighting an overtly racist campaign staged by Trump who has called him a jihadist and hinted he is a terrorist.
Meanwhile, the race to replace the retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith in Minnesota is very tight, with Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan facing retired broadcaster Michele Tafoya, a Republican. Flanagan might normally have a healthy lead but the state has been riven by a scandal involving a $250 million scheme dealing with fraudulent claims for child nutrition programs under Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, who unsuccessfully ran for vice president two years ago.
And there is New Hampshire where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen opted out of running for re-election. A candidate with a revered political name in the Granite State, Republican John Sununu, already a former member of the Senate, is facing Democratic congressman t Chris Pappas.
Safe to say, Democrats can’t afford to lose any of those races in states where they are defending a seat. It could be curtains.
Regardless, can Democrats pull this off? It’s possible, but it will be a bumpy road.