That perpetual fundraising machine better known as Addison Mitchell McConnell, like Old Man River, just keeps rolling along, probably dashing the hopes of those praying that the Senate Republican leader from Louisville might finally be pulling the plug on his historic run.
Federal Election reports tell the story.
As of March 31, the McConnell campaign had almost $8 million on hand for 2026, the next time his name is slated to appear on the ballot, with no debt obligations, which is a nice, little nest egg even for someone as talented as McConnell for convincing rightwing fat cats to empty their pockets in his behalf.
And the engine hasn’t even warmed up yet.
Compare that to the quarterly report filed by the McConnell Senate Committee for the period ending March 31, 2017, a point before the November 2020 election that’s analogous to the current stage in the 2026 campaign. It showed that to that point in the election cycle McConnell had collected $2,867,675.23 with $1,441,754.87 cash on hand.
In other words, our boy Mitch has almost three-times as much money on hand at this stage of the 2026 campaign as he did at a similar stage in 2017. And, for those who may not recall, McConnell wound up pocketing a cool $57 million for that effort, which found him defeating Democrat Amy McGrath by more than 400,000 votes.
So, it appears the scales are tilting toward a re-election campaign. That makes it a convenient time to observe that Mitch McConnell is likely the most successful politician in Kentucky history. He has served in the U.S. Senate without interruption since 1985, a total of 38 years, the longest tenure in the commonwealth’s history. He has served as leader of Senate Republicans, in both the majority and the minority, since 2007, again, the longest time any person has served in that role. He is also, unofficially, the 10th member of the U.S. Supreme Court, since he is as responsible as anyone for turning the once esteemed panel into a heavy-handed, reactionary cabal that can barely aspire to being considered moribund.
No less an authority than columnist George Will has called McConnell “the most consequential conservative since Ronald Reagan.” The word “consequential” being an interesting choice, since it has neither a positive nor a negative connotation, just an assessment of effectiveness, which has often worked to the nation’s detriment, especially during the administration of President Barack Obama, when he approached the Democrat’s agenda as something to be toyed with.
Regardless, speculation remains ripe over McConnell’s future. He is 81 and appears increasingly fragile on the public stage. Should he seek and win his Senate seat for a gobsmacking eighth time, he will be 89 years old when his term ends in 2031.
The Senate, during McConnell’s tenure, has become something of a nursing home catering to the elderly. Some members, particularly Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-CA, who is 90, have been criticized for remaining on board long after their sell-by date because of their inability to keep up with the work.
McConnell has experienced health problems not uncommon among individuals who are years past Social Security eligibility. He tripped and fell at a Washington DC fundraiser on March 8, suffering a concussion and a cracked rib that kept him out of Senate action for almost six weeks. An earlier fall, this one in August 2019, left him with a fractured shoulder that also placed him on the shelf.
Health and age concerns are unlikely to deter McConnell, whose entire being is built around the Senate. He probably wouldn’t break a sweat winning another six-year term with once dominant Democrats offering a bench weaker than what could be found with the ’62 Mets, an indictment of a once proud and powerful party. Meanwhile, the man he seemed to be lining up as his successor, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, is engaged in a campaign for governor, which likely would remove him from any Senate eligibility list should he win.
(Although a governor leaving his seat after only three years to run for the Senate is not unheard of – Wendell Ford did it, successfully, in 1974.)
Of course, former Gov. Matt Bevin could make himself available as a potential successor but Mitch would rather see Karl Marx in a black robe on the Supreme Court than Bevin in any position of authority.
A few things, in addition to his health may affect his ultimate decision. McConnell, as GOP leader, has managed to control the majority for only six of his 16 years at the helm. As anyone who has ever served in the upper chamber will tell you, being in the majority is a whole lot more fun than being in the minority. Currently, Democrats maintain control by a single vote and several vulnerable Democratic seats are up in 2024, providing McConnell with the hope of once again serving as top dog.
Frankly, McConnell has proved more effective in the minority, a counter-puncher, if you will, than serving in the majority. But the opportunity to once again grab the wheel, with the prospect of remaining in the majority perhaps beyond the 2026 election, could prove too tantalizing to forego.
But any decision about sticking around might revolve around the outcome of an unrelated contest. The next presidential election comes in 2024, two years before McConnell potentially faces his next re-election challenge. Democrats are expected to offer up the incumbent, President Joe Biden, who actually enjoys a good relationship with McConnell – they served together for years in the Senate. While Mitch isn’t averse to smacking his old colleague around on occasion, he has helped with several pieces of legislation — the infrastructure bill comes immediately to mind – and maybe wouldn’t mind too much to see Biden back on Pennsylvania Avenue if he can respond with the Senate majority.
Ironically, the deciding factor may hinge on an unrelated election. The early and dominant leader for the Republican presidential nomination is an all-too-familiar face, former President Donald J. Trump, who has made it clear to the point of revulsion that he has no use for Mitch McConnell in any way, shape of form.
This tale has been related so many times it’s not worth going over again, other than to note the Lord of Mar-a-Lago didn’t appreciate McConnell’s criticism of him regarding the Jan. 6 attempt to overthrow the nation’s duly-elected government. He has vowed to oppose McConnell in every manner possible.
It may not be a real concern. While he is the frontrunner, Trump is under indictment for pilfering confidential government documents and then, for some odd reason, refusing to return them in any reasonable manner. Other charges regarding Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election, where Biden disposed of his re-election chances by about 7 million votes, are said to be in the pipeline.
But Trump is an undeniably powerful force, the leader of a cult numbering in the millions who will obey his commands without question. He is, in fact, more popular in Kentucky than McConnell who, despite his obvious electoral successes, has never grabbed the heart of the Bluegrass like many of his predecessors, particularly those on the Democratic side of the aisle.
Trump won’t be able to stop McConnell’s re-election if he chooses to run. But he may be able to oust him from his leadership position. Sen. Rick Scott, R-FL, tried to do that earlier this year and fell embarrassingly short. But Trump, should he somehow return to the White House instead of taking up residence in a federal penitentiary, will undoubtedly lean on the other members of the Senate GOP to do his dirty work. He likely will seek a pledge from any Republican running for the Senate to oppose McConnell in order to receive his endorsement.
There’s also a practical question – could McConnell effectively serve as Senate Republican leader during a Trump administration? The answer is no. And that could weigh heavily, if circumstances require, on his ultimate decision.