Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has successfully navigated his way through the first circle of the inferno known as the Democratic presidential primary process – at least no one was left laughing hysterically at his prospects – and the boy could very well be heading to a title fight in 2028.
Now the fun begins.
Beshear copped an appearance last Sunday on Meet the Press, which doesn’t hold the influence it once did but remains nothing to be sneezed at, and hit the hustings on a speaking tour in South Carolina, which, coincidently, is slated to remain one of the early primary states three years hence. His early reviews look solid.
George Will, the noted conservative columnist, was even induced to leave his box at Nationals Park in DC long enough to venture to Frankfort recently for a review of the state’s 47-year-old leader, authoring a piece that was more positive than dismissive.
All of this even though, officially, Beshear has committed to nothing. But he told NBC’s Kristen Welker that the idea of running for president doesn’t stray too far from his conscious.
“I would have never considered this a couple of years ago,” Beshear said. “But I will not leave a broken country to my kids or to anyone else’s. And so, if I am somebody that at that point, I can heal the country, then I’ll take a look at it.”
That, to anyone who has ever paid attention to American politics, is as good as Beshear saying, “I’m in.”
It’s ridiculously early, of course. The ashes from the last, brutal presidential campaign are still smoldering. But the political climate we find ourselves in requires potential candidates to get themselves noticed early in an increasingly diverse media culture or get lost in the shuffle, especially considering the Democratic campaign is likely to draw upwards of a dozen legitimate contenders.
In South Carolina, Beshear touted his political successes in a state dominated by Republicans, noting that he bested two GOP gubernatorial candidates – including an incumbent – in a commonwealth where President-cum-Dictator Donald J. Trump drew almost 65 percent of the popular vote.
“Democrats can win again by winning back that middle, and it’s there for the taking,” he told attendees at an organized labor conference in Greenville. “There’s so much discourse right now about the messaging and how Democrats get out of the wilderness. We do it by showing up. We do it by getting dirt on our boots. And we do it by governing well.”
Beshear first drew national notice last year when he was considered for the number two slot on the Democratic presidential ticket with then-Vice President Kamala Harris after President Joe Biden dumped his re-election bid. That nomination went instead to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Beshear probably would have been a better choice – Walz came across as short in the gravitas department — and thus escaped the potential onus of appearing on a losing ticket. Now his name rings a bell with some voters and his moderate politics and disposition separates him from more progressive contenders.
Should he enter the race, and there’s little doubt he will, Beshear probably won’t experience much difficulty piecing together a crackerjack campaign organization. Plenty of the party’s veteran consultants will be looking to hook up with a political moderate, hoping to make a break from the viciousness that permeates the contemporary political discourse.
His issue, of course, will be raising the money to pay those folks and run a competent national effort. The Harris campaign last year raised an incredible $1.5 billion, earned 48.3 percent of the vote, lost to Trump and had a paltry $1.8 million remaining in the bank once it was all over. It’s probable the party’s 2028 candidate will have to better those financial marks – Harris didn’t have to ante up to fend off any primary opposition – an unlikely happenstance this go-round — although she did have to compensate somewhat for having to get off to a belated start.
In his 2023 campaign for governor, Beshear raised in the neighborhood of $20 million. Whether he can build on that could eventually decide whether he has the wherewithal to actually launch a presidential campaign and it will undoubtedly be the top priority moving forward.
And he won’t be alone.
The Democratic Party has done a poor job in recent years of promoting its younger aspirants, relying on Social Security eligible folks like Biden and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, of California, both in their eighties, to carry the party’s banner. That has left it with a weak bench. Since no one from the younger generation has grabbed the spotlight, more than a dozen office holders will be looking to fill the void.
California Gov. Gavin Newsome actually beat Beshear to the punch in South Carolina. Others, like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, are waiting in the wings. Harris may seek a return engagement, although it’s thought she most likely will run for governor of California, and Walz may take a gander. There are any number of governors, senators, members of congress, butchers, bakers and candlestick makers who look in the mirror every morning and see a potential president of the United States.
So, the question becomes where does Andrew Graham Beshear, himself the son of a two-term governor, fit in the national Democratic Party. He is almost assuredly on the right side of the scale, although he is far from a fire-breathing reactionary. Regardless, much of the party is pulling left, countering the fascist tendencies of the current White House office holder.
Progressives, like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, maintain significant pull in today’s Democratic Party and they are unlikely to get behind the likes of an Andy Beshear in any presidential primary. His hopes will lean on voters seeking to win at all costs who are willing to place political philosophy aside to support a candidate able to bring in more moderate voters, a group that seems eternally up for grabs.
There’s also race and gender to consider. Democrats have nominated a woman in two of the past three presidential elections – Hilary Clinton and Harris — and women form a majority of the party’s base. Two of the past four candidates are Black – former President Barak Obama and Harris. Beshear, obviously, fits comfortably in neither category. A significant number of the party’s regulars would prefer a candidate other than your standard issue White male, the type that has ruled the roost for all but eight of the last 236 years.
A lot of Democratic women, understandably, think it’s their turn. Why would they get behind Beshear instead of a candidate like Whitmer, the very successful governor of Michigan, a purple state, whose status as a progressive Democrat would more closely align her with the party as a whole?
That’s the sort of thing Beshear will have to figure out over the next three years or so. For right now, I’m reminded of the old tale of the man falling off the 102nd story of the Empire State Building. As he plummeted, someone stuck their head out a window on the 50th floor to ask how he was doing.
“So far, so good,” he replied.
For Andy Beshear and his presidential ambitions, so far so good.